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In auction and draft leagues, you select your players before the season starts and ride them all year. In Tournament-Style
(FFTOC), you can start any player you want, but only once in the season.
Regardless of the style, if you can leverage a player’s age to put the odds in your favor, you’ll have an advantage.
So, do younger NFL studs typically produce more or less as the season progresses? What about older elite NFL players? Do they typically wear down
more during the season? For that matter, do any real patterns exist based on a stud’s age and if so, how can you take advantage?
Buckle up. It’s time to dig in.
To address these questions, I’ve integrated three years of Average Draft Position (ADP) data and player statistics. And, for purposes of this analysis, I’ve calculated FF-Points using the
FFTOC scoring system (1pt-10yds rushing or receiving, 1pt-25yds passing and 6pts for all TDs).
I used a simple but reasonable method to define a “stud.” Each year, I sorted NFL players based on their average draft position just before the season started. The Top-40 fantasy draft picks each year were included in the
analysis that year.
I graded out all 120-player performances (40/year for three years) by week. Next, I aggregated the results into the
first half and second half of the season. Week’s 1-8 made up the first half and week’s 9-16 the second. Week #17 was ignored as some teams pull players and rest them for the NFL playoffs.
After all the data wrangling was done, it was time for the data to confess.
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Examining
Stud Player Production
based on Age and Time of the Season
(n=120 case
studies) |
| Age |
Weeks 1 to 8 |
Weeks 9 to 16 |
% Change |
| 21-23 |
505 points |
611 points |
+21% |
| 24-26 |
1290 |
1568 |
+22% |
| 27-30 |
1561 |
1750 |
+12% |
| 31-plus |
691 |
569 |
-17% |
+22% vs. -17% -- WOW!
While the sample size isn’t huge, a clear pattern jumps out here! Younger studs do better latter in the season. And, older studs tend to produce less late in the year.
Look at those percentages! On average you can expect a 22% increase in the second half among studs age 24-26. But studs 31-plus actually produce 17% less in the second half of the season. To add to the rigor of the analysis, the data shows a nice ordinal, downward linear trend over the age groups: +21%, +22%, +12%
and –17%.
While exceptions will always exist, the facts show we have something actionable here. Something you can use to gain an edge.
In the FFTOC, you compete on a level playing field. Everyone starts the season with the exact same conditions. No one rides a player all season nor plays an easier schedule and there is no lasting bad luck from player injuries or watching your player's NFL team disintegrate around him. It’s all about your ability to evaluate players and matchups and then strategically determine when using a player benefits you the most.
Based on prior year’s data, the message looks clear here for Tournament-Style
managers. Everything else being equal be sure to play your older studs early in the year. And, hold off on the temptation to start the younger studs until later in the season. In the long run, if you do this, you’ll tally 17% and 22% more points in each of the respective age segments.
Think about it… you’re in the FFTOC Finals and you have the young studs and most of your opponents have the older studs. Hum! That alone could be a nice edge.
For it’s part, Tournament-Style is the newest and most exciting thing to happen to playing fantasy football since awarding yardage points instead of only touchdowns. The FFTOC has a $50 game that returns 100% of the entry fees and gives you a chance to turn $50 into $10,000! If you’re looking for a cool new way to play, this is it.
If you’re in a draft or auction league, I believe the message is equally clear here. Everything else being equal, you want to trade away your older studs, midway thru the season for younger studs of equal value at the time of the trade. Think about it. How many guys in your league know about this age finding? It’s a great opportunity to sell high (older stud in the early part of the year) and buy low (get a younger stud early in the season).
Now, lets pause for a minute. I’m not saying player age should be the only factor you consider in a trade. Obviously not. However, everything else being equal, you need to take advantage of the odds presented here and pull the trigger when it’s prudent to put the odds in your favor.
For your reference some detailed data and other helpful information follows below. Good luck and as always, if you have any feedback for me, please pass it along.
Cheers,
Tim Ferrell
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Looking Back at the Historical Data
ANALYSIS RESULT
PRODUCTION in 1ST HALF vs. 2ND HALF
FF POINTS
PERFORMANCE IN
1ST HALF vs. 2ND HALF
--------HALF---------
AGE wk1-8 wk9-16
-------------- ---------- ----------
21-23 505 611
24-26 1,290 1,568
27-30 1,561 1,750
31plus 691 569
WEEKLY TRENDS
FF POINTS BY AGE BY WEEK
------------------AGE-------------------
WEEK 21-23 24-26 27-30 31plus
-------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
W1 94 199 201 147
W2 49 210 220 53
W3 42 134 173 70
W4 50 146 186 116
W5 67 154 209 84
W6 57 98 172 71
W7 97 182 154 53
W8 49 167 247 97
W9 78 154 181 66
W10 57 199 188 68
W11 60 194 203 72
W12 66 199 218 84
W13 105 199 254 62
W14 100 233 204 60
W15 88 176 274 97
W16 58 213 228 61
W17 68 211 192 33
PLAYERS USED IN THIS ANALYSIS
--------YEAR---------
--------2000---------
PLAYER ADP AGE
------------------------- ---------- ----------
FAULK, MARSHALL 1 27
JAMES, EDGERRIN 2 22
GEORGE, EDDIE 3 27
MANNING, PEYTON 4 24
WARNER, KURT 5 29
DAVIS, STEPHEN 6 26
DAVIS, TERRELL 7 28
TAYLOR, FRED 8 24
HARRISON, MARVIN 9 28
MOSS, RANDY 10 23
SMITH, EMMITT 11 31
FAVRE, BRETT 12 31
MARTIN, CURTIS 13 27
BRUCE, ISAAC 14 28
WILLIAMS, RICKY 15 23
STALEY, DUCE 16 25
LEVENS, DORSEY 17 30
STEWART, JAMES 18 29
ROBINSON, MARCUS 19 25
ANDERSON, JAMAL 20 28
FREEMAN, ANTONIO 21 28
SMITH, JIMMY 22 31
MCNAIR, STEVE 23 27
JOHNSON, BRAD 24 32
MOULDS, ERIC 25 27
DAYNE, RON 26 22
WESTBROOK, MICHAEL 27 28
CARTER, CRIS 28 26
JOHNSON, KEYSHAWN 29 28
ALSTOTT, MIKE 30 27
GONZALEZ, TONY 31 24
GALLOWAY, JOEY 32 29
BEUERLEIN, STEVE 33 35
MUHAMMAD, MUHSIN 34 27
BROWN, TIM 35 34
SMITH, ROBERT 36 28
LEWIS, JAMAL 37 21
DILLON, COREY 38 25
ENIS, CURTIS 39 24
WHEATLEY, TYRONE 40 28
BY POS wk1-8 wk9-16
-------------- ---------- ----------
RB 1,781.88 1,747.00
QB 907.34 642.60
WR 976.50 852.90
TE 71.10 88.60
--------YEAR---------
--------2001---------
PLAYER ADP AGE
------------------------- ---------- ----------
FAULK, MARSHALL 1 28
JAMES, EDGERRIN 2 23
CULPEPPER, DAUNTE 3 24
WARNER, KURT 4 30
GEORGE, EDDIE 5 28
TAYLOR, FRED 6 25
MOSS, RANDY 7 24
MANNING, PEYTON 8 25
DAVIS, STEPHEN 9 27
WILLIAMS, RICKY 10 24
HARRISON, MARVIN 11 29
MARTIN, CURTIS 12 28
OWENS, TERRELL 13 28
DILLON, COREY 14 26
GREEN, AHMAN 15 24
HOLT, TORRY 16 25
BRUCE, ISAAC 17 29
GARCIA, JEFF 18 31
SMITH, LAMAR 19 31
GRIESE, BRIAN 20 26
MCNABB, DONOVAN 21 25
SMITH, ROD 22 31
GONZALEZ, TONY 23 25
STEWART, JAMES 24 30
STALEY, DUCE 25 26
ANDERSON, JAMAL 26 29
CARTER, CRIS 27 27
GANNON, RICH 28 36
WATTERS, RICKY 29 32
DUNN, WARRICK 30 26
MOULDS, ERIC 31 28
BENNETT, MICHAEL 32 23
ALEXANDER, DERRICK 33 30
DAVIS, TERRELL 34 29
FAVRE, BRETT 35 32
HORN, JOE 36 29
MCCAFFREY, ED 37 33
BROWN, TIM 38 35
GREEN, TRENT 39 31
JOHNSON, KEYSHAWN 40 29
BY POS wk1-8 wk9-16
-------------- ---------- ----------
RB 1,172.60 1,268.32
QB 1,469.26 1,398.42
WR 909.40 1,010.30
TE 69.80 59.50
--------YEAR---------
--------2003---------
PLAYER ADP AGE
------------------------- ---------- ----------
TOMLINSON, LADAINIAN 1 24
WILLIAMS, RICKY 2 26
PORTIS, CLINTON 3 23
FAULK, MARSHALL 4 30
HOLMES, PRIEST 5 30
MCALLISTER, DEUCE 6 25
ALEXANDER, SHAUN 7 26
HARRISON, MARVIN 8 31
JAMES, EDGERRIN 9 25
HENRY, TRAVIS 10 25
MCNABB, DONOVAN 11 27
GREEN, AHMAN 12 26
OWENS, TERRELL 13 30
MOSS, RANDY 14 26
CULPEPPER, DAUNTE 15 26
BARBER, TIKI 16 28
MANNING, PEYTON 17 27
LEWIS, JAMAL 18 24
DILLON, COREY 19 28
TAYLOR, FRED 20 27
MOULDS, ERIC 21 30
GANNON, RICH 22 38
DAVIS, STEPHEN 23 29
GEORGE, EDDIE 24 30
GARNER, CHARLIE 25 31
GREEN, WILLIAM 26 23
BURRESS, PLAXICO 27 26
HORN, JOE 28 31
WARD, HINES 29 27
MARTIN, CURTIS 31 30
WARNER, KURT 32 32
HOLT, TORRY 33 27
BROOKS, AARON 34 27
BOSTON, DAVID 35 25
ROBINSON, KOREN 36 23
TOOMER, AMANI 37 29
DRIVER, DONALD 38 28
PRICE, PEERLESS 39 27
VICK, MICHAEL 40 23
BY POS wk1-8 wk9-16
-------------- ---------- ----------
RB 1,869.84 2,108.50
WR 967.86 913.40
QB 619.60 758.30
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