Week 15 vs. New England Patriots
T.Y. Hilton had just two catches for 22 yards against the Texans before the bye last week. Hilton scored a touchdown in the prior outing, but he has only one game with more than 28 yards this season and the Colts have played mostly a run-based game plan all year. With Michael Pittman Jr. taking up most of the targets, that leaves very little for Hilton. He has upside if he can keep seeing targets, but he’s far too risky in this offense to warrant inserting into fantasy lineups. Sit him.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
T.Y. Hilton found the end zone for the first time this season against the Buccaneers last week, but he was held to just 28 yards on four receptions. Still, five targets and a touchdown are nice to see for Hilton, who has a nice matchup this week. It’s risky to trust him, so fantasy managers should look elsewhere if possible, but he’s worth grabbing off waivers in case he can regain his form from the second half of last season.
Fantasy Upside
T.Y. Hilton was up and down last season and often hobbled, but he finished reasonably strong. He was the WR14 in total fantasy points from Week 10 on last year and has continued to produce, despite being nicked up and suffering from inconsistent (at best) quarterback play for much of the last three seasons. Hilton re-signed over the offseason, so he must think he still has a role, and the Colts didn’t really add any pass catchers, so the most likely scenario remains that Hilton leads the team in targets. He’s being slept on a bit due to his age and perceived down year, but Hilton can still produce.
Fantasy Downside
Maybe Hilton’s diminutive frame is breaking down. He’ll turn 32 in November and he’s missed at least one game in each of his past three seasons. Also, he’ll be breaking in another new quarterback after taking half a season to get accustomed to Philip Rivers last year. If Carson Wentz stinks, Hilton declines due to age, and young receivers Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell take the steps the team is hoping for, Hilton could easily struggle to put up solid fantasy numbers.
2021 Bottom Line
Hilton was the WR40 last year despite struggles with Rivers early in the season and nagging injuries, and he’s currently going as the WR54 in the 13th round. Even if he turns in the same disappointing season as last year, he’s still a value pick at this point. His range of outcomes may not be as wide as Pittman’s, but his potential to lead the team in targets again makes him well worth the low price tag as the fourth or fifth receiver on your roster.
Week 17 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
T.Y. Hilton caught three balls for 60 yards last week in a loss to the Steelers. It was his second modest week after scoring four touchdowns in his previous three games, but he still had seven targets. He’s quietly had 47 targets over his past seven games, and his rapport with Philip Rivers really seemed to pick up over the second half of the season.
This week, Hilton has a great matchup against the Jaguars, who rank 23rd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. We have him ranked as a solid WR2 option, and he should be one of the safer fantasy receivers to close out the season. Start him.
Week 16 at Pittsburgh Steelers
T.Y. Hilton had another nice game last week against the Texans, even if he didn’t find the end zone after scoring four times in his previous three games. He finished with four catches on six targets and 71 yards. Hilton has at least five targets in his past six games and has enjoyed a second-half resurgence as he’s gotten healthy and built a nice rapport with quarterback Philip Rivers.
This week, Hilton faces a Steelers defense that ranks eighth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners riding Hilton might look elsewhere in the WR2 range due to the bad matchup, but he should still get enough targets to be a viable WR3 option, particularly in deeper leagues.
Week 15 vs. Houston Texans
T.Y. Hilton has been on a tear lately, with 17 catches, 277 yards and four touchdowns over his last three games. Hilton likely would’ve continued to thrash the Raiders last week had the game not gotten out of hand in the second half. It’s good to see the veteran finding a nice rapport with Philip Rivers after disappointing throughout most of the season.
Hilton should keep rolling this week against the Texans, who rank 30th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and just gave up big numbers to Allen Robinson and the Bears. Hilton isn’t without risk in an aging passing game, but with how red-hot he’s been and how well Rivers has been playing, it’s hard not to use him in a great matchup. He should be considered a solid WR2 option.
Week 14 at Las Vegas Raiders
After struggling all season, T.Y. Hilton has a touchdown now in two straight games. He set season-highs with eight catches on 11 targets, for 110 yards in a victory over the Texans last week and is starting to look healthy as his rapport with Philip Rivers improves.
This week, Hilton has a decent matchup against the Raiders, who rank 19th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Hilton is risky because he hasn’t been productive for most of the year, but in a good matchup, coming off a couple of good outings, he’s worth considering as a WR3 option in all leagues.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
T.Y. Hilton had his best game of the year last week against the Titans, catching four of five balls thrown his way for 81 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Hilton has been hobbled at times, and struggled to get on the same page as new quarterback Philip Rivers, but he still has the ability to make plays when healthy.
Hilton has a nice matchup this week against a Texans defense that ranks 28th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. His lack of production this year makes him very, very risky, but the upside is there coming off a good week in a great matchup. Consider him a risky, low-end WR3 option.
Week 8 at Detroit Lions
Despite a great matchup against the Bengals, T.Y. Hilton caught just one of the five balls thrown his way before the bye last week, totaling only 11 yards. Hilton has averaged 6.2 targets per game this year, so there’s reason for optimism, but until he starts to produce, it’s hard to recommend starting him in any given week. It seems as though he’s not fully on the same page as quarterback Philip Rivers, as he’s caught just 20 of his 37 targets all year.
This week, Hilton faces a Lions’ defense that ranks 19th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, so he could do well. However, Rivers hasn’t been using his wide receivers a ton this year, making it risky to trust any of them. Hilton should be considered a low-end desperation starter this week with boom-bust potential.
Week 6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
T.Y. Hilton only had 69 yards last week, but it was a season-high for him, and it was on six receptions and 10 targets. It was good to see him lead the team in targets, even considering the Colts were trailing for much of the contest. Hilton is still developing a rapport with Philip Rivers, but he’s worth holding on to considering the attrition in the Indianapolis receiving corps.
This week, Hilton faces a Bengals defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and just gave up 19.7 PPR points to Marquise Brown a week ago. It’s a nice matchup for Hilton, and if the Bengals can put up some points offensively and keep the Colts throwing, Hilton could once again see heavy targets. Fantasy owners should consider him a risky, but quality WR3 option in deep formats.
