Fantasy Upside
When Tony Romo has been healthy, he has been a very effective fantasy quarterback despite his playoff disappointments that have many Cowboys fans looking for a new signal caller. The four seasons before his injury-riddled 2015, he averaged 34 touchdowns and 4,155 yards per season. Dallas is very confident Romo is fully healed headed into 2016.
Fantasy Downside
Obviously, health is a major concern for the Cowboys concerning Romo. He is entering his 14th season and is 36 years old so the concerns that his body could be breaking down are not unwarranted. Another factor is Dallas has really run the football very well the past three seasons behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Yes, a strong running game will help protect Romo, but his pass attempts have fallen since a career-high 648 back in 2012.
2016 Bottom Line
A healthy Romo will be a factor this season, but maybe not good enough to be considered a QB1. 4for4 ranks him as the 14th best quarterback, but he is getting drafted higher with an ADP of 96. That is probably a little high so there might be better options. Don't forget, a lot of fantasy owners get enamored with the star on the side of the helmet and pick Cowboys higher than they are worth. This could be the case with Romo.
UPDATE: Obviously with Romo injured in a preseason game, his fantasy stock drops him off the QB charts. He could miss as many as 10 games so bad news for Dallas and fantasy owners who already drafted him.
Week 12 vs Carolina
Tony Romo's return from injury had mixed reviews. The Cowboys offense was much better and they won the game while he threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns. However, there was some rust as he threw two interceptions.
Romo is still listed as probable (back/shoulder) for Thanksgiving but will definitely play. He faces a Panthers defense that is 5th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Even though this is a home game and Romo should get more comfortable each week, we don't like him to be in your lineup for Week 12. Keep Romo on the bench as only ranks a QB2.
Week 11 at Miami
Tony Romo is slated to come off the IR this week and it might be too late to salvage the Cowboys season. First, keep an eye on his practice status and whether the Cowboys do actually activate him. It's expected, but not a slam dunk.
If he does play, how rusty will he be? He hasn't seen live action since Week 2. Also, the Dolphins are the opponent and have struggled lately on defense, so that could be to his advantage. They are only 19th in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2015. If Romo does play, he is a risky fantasy start because of some of these unknowns. We rate him a low-end QB1 and say go for it, because if he returns to early season form quickly, he will put up great numbers.
Week 2 vs Philadelphia
Everyone was talking about the last-second drive Tony Romo put together to defeat the Eagles last Sunday night, but the story we care about is the great fantasy game Romo was able to give his owners. He completed 80% of his passes, throwing for 356 yards and three touchdowns. The lone black mark was the two interceptions, but we can live with it.
Romo got some bad news losing Dez Bryant for a couple of months, but we only expect that to be a mild setback. This week, the Cowboys face the Eagles defense, which is still questionable at this point. Romo played better on the road last season, so we feel he has the advantage in this matchup. Start Romo in all leagues as a top-5 fantasy QB in Week 2.
Week 1 vs Giants
Will Tony Romo be a consistent top-5 QB this season? He definitely will be on certain weeks, and we are very confident he will in the top-10 this week so he should be in your starting lineup. Romo has won four straight against the Giants, and completed over 70% of his passes to go with 7 touchdowns with only one interception against them. New York's defense will not significantly improve this season, so start Romo against them in Week 1 and expect very good numbers.
Fantasy Upside
Tony Romo is just on the outside looking in at the top tier QBs in the NFL. Although his overall numbers aren't where they were a couple seasons ago, 2014 might have been his best campaign to date. He threw 34 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions - both career best (He had only 7 INTs in 2010 but only played six games). He also had a completion rate of almost 70%. We expect similar numbers and even better if his off-season surgeries were successful.
Fantasy Downside
Romo's health issues have definitely affected his overall numbers. If he is healthy this season, his numbers should be better. And most reports are he is feeling good, but we will see what happens when he starts getting hit on a regular basis. His passing attempts and yardage were also down last season, but that might be attributed to the success of the Cowboys' running game.
Bottom Line
With Romo healthy and DeMarco Murray gone, the Cowboys franchise QB should increase his numbers in 2015. If he can maintain his TD-INT rate and get his yardage back above 4,000, Romo will be more valuable than his 97 ADP. Even with the injury problems the last several years, Romo was still one of the better fantasy QBs. We expect even better this season.
Week 19: Romo vs Packers
Tony Romo did enough last week to get his team to the next round of the playoffs, completing 61% of his passes for 293 yards, two touchdowns and zero INTs although he did have a fumble. It wasn't easy against the Lions who had a good game plan, double teaming Romo's favorite target Dez Bryant. But the Cowboys were able to come back and advance to the Divisional Round where they will head to the frozen tundra.
Being on the road has not fazed the 2014 Cowboys as they are a perfect 8-0. However, Green Bay is always tough in January and the Packers had a week off to rest the weary. The matchup is neutral as the Pack is 15th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The bigger issue this week is there are a lot of good quarterbacks playing which pushes Romo down the list for Week 19. Romo is not a bad start as he should put up some decent numbers, but he is in the bottom half of the quarterbacks still playing this weekend.
Week 18: Romo vs Lions
Has Tony Romo put his bad Decembers behind him? It appears so. Can the same be said for his postseason woes? Well, we will see. This will be his fifth post season game (1-3 in the others) and his numbers really aren't terrible. He has completed 59% of his passes and averaged 208 yards per game. Romo has thrown four TDs and two INTs. Not exactly MVP numbers, but he seems to be playing with confidence right now.
Romo will face the Lions who are 13th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The good news for Romo owners is that Lions defensive tackle Nudamkong Suh will play which should mean the Cowboys turn more to the passing game.
Overall, Romo ranks behind three other QBs for Wild Card weekend. Not a bad play, but a lot of questions on which Tony Romo shows up Sunday.
Week 17: Romo vs Redskins
Tony Romo was outstanding last week against Indy. Even though he only threw for 218 yards, he completed 90% of his passes and threw four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He now has 10 touchdown passes and zero picks over the last three weeks, which has not been the norm for Romo in past Decembers.
He will face division rival Washington who is 31st in aFPA to quarterbacks. Romo was average in the first meeting throwing only one TD and 209 yards in the loss to the Redskins. Dallas is still playing for seeding, so expect Romo to play the whole game. Start him as a low-end fantasy QB1 for Week 17.
Week 16: Romo vs Colts
Usually, Tony Romo is not too happy when December arrives, but that has not been the case in 2014. He has thrown three touchdowns in each of the last two games (both in December) without an interception and pushed his team into first place in the NFC East. The last two games will be relevant for Dallas so expect them to keep the foot on the gas.
The Cowboys will face the Colts this week who are 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks. It will be seen as a shootout between Romo and Colts QB Andrew Luck so the scoreboard operator should be busy. Start Romo in all formats as a strong QB1 for Week 16 and hope the December magic continues.
