Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks (London)
Do you believe in revenge games? Here's hoping Marshawn Lynch gets three one-yard touchdowns this week against Seattle. Marshawn Lynch has been a bit game script dependent this season. Week 5 was evidence of that. However, when he's been on the field enough in neutral/positive games scripts, he's been a high-end RB2. This game in London has an above average over/under with it expected to be a tight game, as Seattle is favored by less than three points. Lynch is a safe start in Week 6.
Week 5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Even in PPR leagues, Marshawn Lynch's usage in the Raiders offense is a wonderful thing. Three consecutive games of 20+ touches has made him a dependable fantasy asset, and this week, he faces a Chargers defense that is just about league average in aFPA to RBs. This game has the second-highest over/under of Sunday and Monday's games, and the Raiders are only a 5-point underdog. There should be enough neutral game script here to keep Lynch in the RB2 mix with upside from there if he scores.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Marshawn Lynch has entered bell cow mode with 20+ touches in consecutive weeks. Cleveland has looked like a run funnel defense through three weeks, too, ranking first in aFPA against QBs. So Lynch should continue to see solid volume. The Browns only rank middle of the pack against RBs in aFPA. Start him with confidence as an RB2.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders have the dreaded cross-country, early eastern time zone kickoff Sunday in Miami. Las Vegas has taken note, too, as the Raiders have a low 20.5-point implied team total. However, Lynch should be a reliable RB2 this week based on volume alone. He saw his snaps increase from 37 to 63 percent from Week 1 to 2 and his touches increase from 13 to 20. That's extremely promising. Miami is also just 22nd in PPR points allowed to RBs this season. Start Lynch with confidence.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
A touchdown salvaged Lynch's Week 1 on 13 touches, but the matchup this week is not attractive. The Broncos were top-10 last season in aFPA to RBs. Denver was also top-10 in PPR points allowed to the RB position in Week 1. The Raiders have an implied team total under 20 points, which is very low by Vegas standards. It's hard to consider Lynch as anything more than a FLEX option in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Welcome back to the Jon Gruden era, where the Raiders will start with a bottom-half implied team total in Vegas for Week 1. Marshawn Lynch will face a stingy defense that added Ndamukong Suh to go with Aaron Donald up front. Yikes. That should significantly improve the Rams being dead last in aFPA to RBs from a year ago. Based on volume alone, though, consider Lynch a low-end RB2 this week, who is likely to suffer from negative game script.
Fantasy Upside
Marshawn Lynch finished as the RB23 in PPR last season, averaging about 15 touches per game. He has a plus-offensive line in Oakland and is reunited with the OL coach he thrived under in Seattle, Tom Cable. From Week 9 on, Lynch was the RB13 in PPR and averaged 18.9 touches per game. If he continues to get that type of volume, he should be an RB2 again.
Fantasy Downside
Which Lynch will we see? The one from Week 9 on, or the one who averaged six fantasy points per game from Week 1-8? Plus, the Raiders coaching staff continues to praise Doug Martin this offseason. Lynch's touch share in this backfield puts him at risk of being a weekly headache in redraft leagues.
2018 Bottom Line
Doug Martin garnered preseason praise last season also, but that doesn't change the fact he's been terrible in games for two straight seasons. Lynch's ADP is fairly priced for his age and uncertain situation under a new coaching staff. He's often being selected after the sixth round. He has the chance to be an RB2 again this season but should be no worse than a FLEX option.
Week 17 at Los Angeles Chargers
Oakland ends its season in Los Angeles, facing a Chargers defense revved up to try and make the postseason. That's not a good combination for Marshawn Lynch, but his recent volume should keep him useful enough to be an RB2 this week. He has averaged 20+ touches in his past five games.
Week 16 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Raiders go cross-country for a Christmas night battle with the Eagles. Marshawn Lynch has had at least 19 touches in three of his last four games, but there's some concern here against an elite Eagles defensive front and the loss of Donald Penn on the Raiders offensive line. Consider Lynch a low-end RB2 this week based solely on the volume.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders face the Cowboys in a must-win game for their playoff hopes. Oakland has an implied team total in Vegas below the top half of teams for Week 15. However, Marshawn Lynch has posted RB2 numbers or better in four of the past five weeks. His 8 touches last week are concerning, though, after having 29 and 19 touches the previous two weeks. The Cowboys are 15th in aFPA to RBs. There's low volume risk with Lynch this week, but he's still worthy of a low-ceiling start as a FLEX in PPR and RB2 in standard leagues.
