Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders end their season coming off an emotional win in what could have been the last NFL game played in Oakland but now walk into Arrowhead for a game the Chiefs need to win to ensure home field advantage. Combine that with an implied team total of fewer than 20 points this week, and this is an offense that carries great fantasy risk to end the regular season. Kansas City has struggled against the run in terms of aFPA to RBs, but negative game script could be an issue here. For these reasons, Doug Martin is a touchdown-or-bust FLEX risk in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Denver Broncos
Oakland hosts Denver as a home underdog with an implied team total of just 20 points. In what could be the last game the Raiders ever play in Oakland, one would expect Jon Gruden to have this team ready to play well. In fantasy though, we care more about quantifiable factors more than narratives. Denver is best in the league in aFPA to RBs. With no receptions over the past two games, Doug Martin cannot be started with any confidence in this match-up, despite being the lead back at this point.
Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders head to the eastern time zone for an early kickoff in Cincinnati. Oakland is a road underdog with a middle of the road implied team total, which should lead to negative game script. Nevertheless, the Bengals struggling defense (dead last in aFPA to RBs) keeps Doug Martin in the FLEX/low-end RB2 conversation. He's averaging 18 touches over the past two weeks with scores in each.
Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Raiders have an implied team total of fewer than 21 points, among the bottom ten teams in the league this week. The Steelers defense has had its struggles, but recently, that has come against offenses much better than Oakland's. Pittsburgh still ranks top 10 in aFPA to RBs. These factors and the signing of C.J. Anderson give us pause in starting either Doug Martin or Jalen Richard this week. Of the two, Richard is the more viable option among PPR desperation FLEX plays.
Week 13 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is ranked 29th in aFPA to RBs, and a very high over/under in this game keeps the Raiders from the bottom teams in implied team total for Week 13. Martin is averaging 10.4 PPR points per week since Oakland's bye, and despite the frequent negative game scripts, volume is keeping Martin on the FLEX radar. However, he continues to be a low ceiling, low floor option.
Week 12 at Baltimore Ravens
The Raiders travel across the country as a double-digit underdog, tied for the lowest implied team total of Week 12 at just 16 points. Baltimore also ranks first in aFPA to RBs. Doug Martin was limited in practice to start the week with an ankle injury, increasing the chances Richard sees additional snaps, but regardless, don't expect the Raiders to get much going on the ground at all, given the match-up. Richard's ability in the passing game makes him the dart throw FLEX play in both standard and PPR leagues over a hobbled Martin.
Week 11 at Arizona Cardinals
The Raiders are so bad at this point in the season that Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog to a two-win team this week. The Raiders implied team total of 17.5 points is also the lowest on the slate this week by a full two points. That's not a recipe for fantasy success. The Cardinals are second in the league in aFPA to QBs but only 27th against RBs, potentially foreshadowing a run-heavy attack for Oakland this week to keep it close in a low-scoring game (if Jon Gruden still actually cares about winning this year). Coming off 18 touches last week, Doug Martin can be considered a low-end RB2 for Week 11.
Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Let's check in on the Raiders offense as they begin the second half of their season: 19th in total offense, 28th in scoring offense and 24th in rushing offense. The Jon Gruden era is going swimmingly so far. The Raiders also have one of the lowest implied team totals this week against Los Angeles. Doug Martin has double-digit carries in his last two games with Marshawn Lynch on IR, but he's not adding anything in the passing game with these negative game scripts Oakland keeps running into this year. Richard is the one providing the much safer floor in PPR formats. Martin is nothing more than a desperation FLEX in search of a rushing touchdown in Week 10.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday)
So what did the run game look like for Oakland without Marshawn Lynch? 15 touches on 56 percent of snaps for Doug Martin and 10 touches on 44 percent of snaps for Jalen Richard. Richard's touches will continue to come mostly in the passing game where Martin has taken over early-down work. There will be weeks where game script sinks Martin's fantasy value, but on paper, this is not one of them. San Francisco is just 19th in aFPA to RBs, and with the 49ers possibly starting a third-string quarterback, positive game flow is likely for Martin in Week 9. He's a viable low-end RB2 this week.
Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders come out of the bye week without their top running back, as Marshawn Lynch was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury. Do we have optimism for Doug Martin to step in and provide good fantasy value? Not exactly. Martin has rushed for four yards per carry in a season since 2015 and will run behind a bottom-half run blocking offensive line. When Lynch was healthy, his fantasy value still suffered in negative game script situations. We expect the same to continue with Doug Martin, as Jalen Richard is still the passing down back. Martin should be viewed as a risky FLEX in Week 8.
