Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears
Charles Clay's best performance of the season was four catches for 40 yards, so pretty much every week, the expectations are low. The Buffalo offense just isn't very good, especially at the quarterback position.
Clay will face a Bears defense that is ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends, but the matchup is meaningless each week. Until the quarterback positions stabilizes, Clay will not be a fantasy factor. Keep him on the bench for Week 9.
Week 8 vs. New England Patriots
Charles Clay has seven catches over the last two games although only for 34 yards, with zero touchdowns this season for the veteran. Of course, this is mainly because of the horrible offense in Buffalo.
Clay has a good matchup with the Patriots who are 29th in aFPA to tight ends. But that is still not enough to start him Week 8. Keep Clay on the bench as a low-end TE2.
Week 7 at Indianapolis Colts
Charles Clay continues to be limited because of the Buffalo offense. He did catch four passes last week, but only for 20 yards. We know Clay has talent and maybe the change at quarterback to veteran Derek Anderson will help.
Clay will face a Colts defense that is 18th in aFPA to tight ends. He remains ranked a low-end TE2 and probably will stay in that area unless the Bills offense can turn things around.
Week 6 at Houston Texans
Charles Clay was targeted one time last week and had one catch. He has only nine catches this season. The problem really isn't Clay but a lethargic Buffalo offense.
Clay has a good matchup with Houston who has trouble with tight ends, but his numbers have been too low to even consider him for a bench spot. Keep Clay on the waiver wire.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Charles Clay was shut out in Week 1 and was only targeted twice. There will be better days ahead for the veteran tight end and it really wasn't a reflection of him so much as it was the Buffalo offense.
Clay has a very tough matchup against the Chargers defense. And with a rookie quarterback behind center, it won't help the Bills' numbers. Keep Clay on the bench for Week 2 as a low-end TE2.
Week 1 at Baltimore Ravens
Charles Clay has been a solid veteran for years now so you can expect him to put up some decent numbers this season in various weeks. But with a Buffalo offense expected to struggle, the consistent numbers might not be there.
The good news is that tight ends had success against Baltimore's defense last season. So, that gives Clay owners some hope. But we still rank him too low to start. Clay is a TE2 option for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Charles Clay was the leading receiver for Buffalo last year which isn't saying much, but it does show he is in the Bills' game plan. With an inexperienced quarterback, Clay has a good chance to be a safety blanket in the Buffalo offense, so his numbers should be about the same or even better than last year's totals (49 catches, 558 yards, 2 TDs).
Fantasy Downside
The Buffalo offense has lots of question marks, especially at quarterback. Clay's numbers could be a casualty if they can't find someone to get him the ball on a regular basis. One other thing to note is that since Clay joined the Bills, he has not been a red zone target, scoring nine red zone touchdowns in three seasons.
2018 Bottom Line
Clay is a late pick and good enough to be a low-end TE2. Even with the QB situation, he should be able to replicate those numbers. Using a 13th- or 14th-round pick is not a bad idea to give you some quality depth at the position.
Wild Card Round at Jacksonville Jaguars
Charles Clay had 6 receptions for 64 yards in the regular season finale. He has averaged 9 targets per game over the last three weeks. It won't be easy against the Jags, who ended the season ranked No. 1 in aFPA versus tight ends.
Still, Clay has some value even with a tough matchup. He ranks as the fourth-best tight end for Wild Card weekend. Use him in your fantasy playoff lineup.
Week 17 at Miami Dolphins
Charles Clay has been targeted 19 times over the last two games, including 9 times against Miami two weeks ago. The production hasn't been great, but the targets show he is part of the gameplan. He is nursing a bad knee so health is an issue but with a playoff spot possibly on the line, we expect him to play.
The Dolphins are ranked dead last in aFPA to tight ends, so the matchup heavily favors Clay. Start Clay as a low-end TE1 for Week 17 and hope the targets remain high.
Week 16 at New England Patriots
Charles Clay had one of his more impactful games for Buffalo last week, being targeted 9 times, which tied a season-high, and he caught 5 passes for 68 yards. Clay still only has 2 touchdowns on the season, the last coming in Week 3. He is also listed a questionable for the week with a knee injury but should play.
In the first meeting with the Patriots earlier this month, Clay had 3 catches for 20 yards. New England is ranked first in aFPA to tight ends. Despite the involvement last week, the matchup isn't great, so keep Clay on the bench this Sunday as a high-end TE2.
