Week 1 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Aaron Rodgers era begins in New York with lots of questions. Can he bounce back from a subpar 2022 season? Is the offensive line good enough to protect him? And can he thrive at age 39 without a Davante Adams type receiver? All those questions won't be answered Monday night, but the story will start to take shape.
The Bills come to Metlife with a very good defense, but without Von Miller. Rodgers should have a good game overall and the Jets are not looking for him to necessarily put up those Hall-of-Fame type numbers. They want him to manage the game and avoid mistakes like the 12 INTs he had last season.
Fantasy managers don't expect him to be a top-tier quarterback and right now, he is a QB2 going into Week 1. Expect around 235 passing yards and if he throws two touchdowns, that will be a good day.
Fantasy Upside
Aaron Rodgers will don a different uniform for the first time in his NFL career and brings a Hall-Of-Fame resume to New York. There is a little doubt he will upgrade the position for the Jets. New York went out and hired his former offensive coordinator in Green Bay, Nathaniel Hackett, which will help the transition. The Jets also have better overall offensive weapons on the roster than the Packers did last season.
Fantasy Downside
Rodgers' stats fell hard last season. His completion rate, TD rate, yards per attempt, and QBR all hit multi-year lows and his 26 passing touchdowns were his fewest since 2018. One theory is he wasn't the same quarterback without Davante Adams which is definitely a possibility. The other thing you will get with Rodgers is the drama off the field and in the New York market, that can be magnified.
2023 Bottom Line
The Jets will be better offensively but don't expect a return to pre-2022 numbers for Rodgers. At 39, he has already hit his peak. New York is hoping he will be serviceable and manage the game to get them victories, not league MVPs. He is definitely not a QB1 coming into the season and he should be drafted as a low-risk/high-reward option somewhere in the late rounds of your draft.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Rodgers has not been much of a fantasy asset in single-QB leagues this season, but he has a chance to leave his mark in the fantasy finals with an inviting divisional matchup on deck against the Vikings. Minnesota ranks among the worst defenses in the entire NFL at slowing opposing passing games, whether that be quarterbacks or wide receivers. With Romeo Doubs back healthy, Rodgers has his full collection of weapons to slice up the Vikings' secondary on Sunday. Rodgers' superficial stats leave much to be desired for a fantasy starter, but we're at the point in the season where individual weekly matchups matter far more than previous results. Rodgers has a great matchup this week and makes for a workable QB1 if you're struggling to fill that slot.
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins
Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to victory last Monday against the Rams but only had to manage the game from a fantasy perspective. Rodgers totaled 228 yards and a single touchdown on 30 pass attempts with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon doing most of the scoring out of the backfield. Rodgers has a chance for a bounce back this week against a Dolphins pass defense that ranks as the fourth-worst in the NFL at suppressing opposing quarterback production according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Rodgers is best thought of as a solid QB2 these days in fantasy, but he has a shot at QB1 production this week given the matchup.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Rodgers was able to cruise to victory over the Bears last Sunday while only accumulating 182 yards and one touchdown on 31 pass attempts as Green Bay largely handled Chicago with the running game. An inconsistent offense and lack of established pass catchers has held Rodgers on the QB1/QB2 borderline most of the season, and he will find himself closer to the QB2 range this week against a Rams defense that ranks in the top-five most difficult opponents for passers according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. It doesn't help Rodgers' fantasy prospects that the Rams are completely devastated by injury on the offensive side of the ball, meaning this game will likely be a low-scoring affair. Rodgers is not a recommended start in single-QB leagues this week, but he makes for a decent QB2.
Week 13 at Chicago Bears
It looks like Aaron Rodgers is set to play through his rib and thumb issues in Week 13 against the Bears, a team he has historically dominated during his career. Rodgers had a rough showing last week, but that was primarily because he had to leave the game early after only 16 pass attempts after taking a hard hit to his ribs. The Bears present a much easier matchup than the Eagles did, and Rodgers' outlook is bolstered by the emergence of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, who has caught six touchdowns from Rodgers in the last three games. Rodgers is a borderline QB1 in a good matchup despite being banged up on the road.
Week 12 at Philadelphia Eagles
Aaron Rodgers showed uncharacteristically poor accuracy in a Week 11 loss to the Titans, and we may have an explanation now that Rodgers revealed he has been dealing with a broken thumb on his throwing hand since Week 6. Needless to say, a quarterback having to deal with a broken thumb on their throwing hand is a serious concern in both real and fantasy football. Add the health concerns to an extremely difficult matchup (the Eagles rank as the most difficult matchup for opposing passers according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) and you are right to hesitate in putting Rodgers out there as a fantasy starter this week. He is still workable as a QB2, but Rodgers' days of elite fantasy production are behind him at this point.
Week 11 vs. Tennessee Titans
After an abysmal performance in Week 9 against Detroit, Aaron Rodgers bounced back in a nice way against the Cowboys in Week 10 when he only threw for 224 yards but registered three touchdowns without an interception. Rodgers has had an inconsistent season and has frequently finished in the QB2 range, but Week 10 showed he still has enough juice left in the tank to burn a good defense through the air. Rodgers gets a matchup upgrade heading into Week 11 against the Titans, who have a below-average defense against opposing passers according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Things were looking dire after Week 9, but Rodgers looks like he's back on the borderline QB1 radar heading into Week 11.
Week 10 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career on Sunday. Rodgers racked up 43 pass attempts against the Lions and registered 291 pass yards, but he threw a single touchdown against three brutal interceptions in the red zone. Rodgers' poor performance is concerning as the Lions were supposed to be a cakewalk matchup and have given up massive amounts of production to other teams so far this season. The Packers offense looks broken, and it's hard to be optimistic now that Aaron Jones and Romeo Doubs are banged up for a much more difficult matchup against the Cowboys this week. Dallas ranks as the third-worst matchup for opposing passers in the NFL according to our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Rodgers simply cannot be trusted to even be a workable streaming option given the current situation in Green Bay. He should be on waivers in most leagues at this point.
Week 9 at Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers predictably had a slow game in a brutal matchup against the Bills last week, but the pendulum is swinging way back the other direction in Week 9 with the Packers traveling to Detroit to take on the Lions and their league-worst defense. Rodgers' metrics as a passer are not all that impressive as he deals with a drop-off in talent at the receiver position. He's currently 26th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt at 6.6, and the Packers play a glacially slow pace making it difficult to rack up much volume in the box score. Despite the overall disappointment for the offense in Green Bay this season, the Lions are the epitome of a get-right matchup and Rodgers should be poised for one of his best games of the season. Even in a year where Rodgers has typically placed as a QB2, he makes for a good QB1 option this week in a prime matchup.
