Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Frank Gore 85 total yards (actual 83 yards)

2) Dwayne Allen 39 receiving yards (actual 35)

3) Tyrod Taylor would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 119)

4) Robert Woods would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 36 yards above average)

5) Jordan Matthews would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 74 yards below average)

6) Nelson Agholor 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

7) Russell Wilson 236 passing yards (actual 243)

8) Alex Smith 237 passing yards (actual 237)

9) Spencer Ware 87 total yards (actual 83 yards)

10) Chris Conley 4.4 fantasy points (actual 4.4)

11) Isaiah Crowell 84 total yards (actual 79 yards)

12) Dennis Pitta 47 receiving yards (actual 42)

13) Terrance West 44 rushing yards (actual 45)

14) Carson Palmer 290 passing yards (actual 287)

15) Michael Floyd 62 receiving yards (actual 65)

16) John Brown would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 59 yards above average)

17) David Johnson 88 rushing yards (actual 83)

18) Ezekiel Elliott would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 73 yards above average)

19) Alshon Jeffery 69 receiving yards (actual 70)

20) Kevin White 6.6 fantasy points (actual 6.2)

21) Torrey Smith 37 receiving yards (actual 35)

22) Matt Forte would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

23) Quincy Enunwa 4.2 receptions (actual = 4)

24) Antonio Brown would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 140)

25) Sammie Coates would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 27 yards below average)

26) Jarvis Landry 6.9 receptions (actual = 7)

27) Eric Ebron 6.6 fantasy points (actual 6.9)

28) Kenny Britt would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 43 yards below average)

29) Tavon Austin 5.2 receptions (actual = 5)

30) Todd Gurley 81 rushing yards (actual 85)

31) Kirk Cousins would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 51 yards below average)

32) Jordan Reed 61 receiving yards (actual 56)

33) Matt Ryan projected pass TD 2.0 (actual 2)

34) Tevin Coleman 46 rushing yards (actual 42)

35) Stefon Diggs would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 103 yards below average)

36) Victor Cruz 7.0 fantasy points (actual 7.0)

37) Shane Vereen 62 rushing yards (actual 67)

38) Sterling Shepard 4.9 receptions (actual = 5)

39) Martellus Bennett would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 54 yards below average)

40) Danny Amendola would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 26 yards below average)

41) Chris Hogan would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 57 yards below average)

42) Drew Brees 26.9 fantasy points (actual 25.9)

43) Mark Ingram 71 rushing yards (actual 77)

44) Coby Fleener would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 92 yards above average)

45) Brandin Cooks would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 93 yards below average)

46) Michael Thomas 66 receiving yards (actual 71)

47) Blake Bortles would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 131 yards below average)

48) Allen Hurns 3.8 receptions (actual = 4)

49) Will Fuller would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 75 yards below average)

50) Greg Olsen 62 receiving yards (actual 64)

51) Philip Rivers would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 99 yards above average)

52) Travis Benjamin 75 receiving yards (actual 82)

53) Dontrelle Inman 32 receiving yards (actual 32)

54) Tyrell Williams 69 receiving yards (actual 69)

55) Brandon LaFell would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 31 yards below average)

56) A.J. Green 76 receiving yards (actual 77)

57) Andy Dalton would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 160 yards below average)

58) Jeremy Hill would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 71 yards above average)

59) C.J. Uzomah 3.1 fantasy points (actual 3.1)

60) Tyler Boyd 3.2 receptions (actual = 3)

61) Derek Carr would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 60 yards below average)

62) Seth Roberts 29 receiving yards (actual 27)

63) Aaron Rodgers 26.1 fantasy points (actual 26.4)

64) Jordy Nelson would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 49 yards above average)

65) Eddie Lacy would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 48 yards above average)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 3 2016 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 288 1.4 301 1.8 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 266 1.2 273 1.5 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 218 1.4 236 1.3 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 3 2016 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 100 0.6 104 0.6 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 97 0.9 78 0.6 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 37 0.3 39 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 3 2016 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 64 0.4 78 0.4 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 72 0.4 68 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 47 0.2 48 0.2 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2016, w4