Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Chris Johnson 10.0 fantasy points (actual 9.4)

2) Michael Floyd would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 44 yards above average)

3) John Brown 9.1 fantasy points (actual 8.8)

4) Devonta Freeman 72 rushing yards (actual 68)

5) Steve L Smith would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 92 yards below average)

6) Martellus Bennett would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 44 yards above average)

7) Matt Forte 89 rushing yards (actual 91)

8) Eddie Royal 56 receiving yards (actual 54)

9) A.J. Green 93 receiving yards (actual 82)

10) Brian Hartline would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 51 yards below average)

11) Andrew Hawkins 27 receiving yards (actual 27)

12) Isaiah Crowell 59 rushing yards (actual 63)

13) Duke Johnson 34 rushing yards (actual 31)

14) Jason Witten 57 receiving yards (actual 57)

15) Terrance Williams 3.2 receptions (actual = 3)

16) Demaryius Thomas 99 receiving yards (actual 93)

17) C.J. Anderson 71 total yards (actual 70 yards)

18) James Jones 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

19) James Starks would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 36 yards below average)

20) Ty Montgomery 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

21) Frank Gore 88 total yards (actual 87 yards)

22) Donte Moncrief 5.7 receptions (actual = 6)

23) Blake Bortles 20.2 fantasy points (actual 19.0)

24) Allen Robinson 77 receiving yards (actual 80)

25) Jamaal Charles 74 rushing yards (actual 75)

26) DeAnthony Thomas 12 receiving yards (actual 11)

27) Rishard Matthews would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 71 yards below average)

28) Adrian Peterson 14.7 fantasy points (actual 15.4)

29) Teddy Bridgewater projected pass TD 1.1 (actual 1)

30) Drew Brees 21.7 fantasy points (actual 22.4)

31) Ben Watson 3.1 fantasy points (actual 3.0)

32) Mark Ingram 13.1 fantasy points (actual 12.8)

33) Brandon Marshall 12.1 fantasy points (actual 12.8)

34) Eric Decker 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

35) Sam Bradford 263 passing yards (actual 270)

36) Antonio Brown would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 103 yards below average)

37) Stevie Johnson 4.4 receptions (actual = 4)

38) Ladarius Green 4.4 receptions (actual = 4)

39) Keenan Allen would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

40) Torrey Smith 51 receiving yards (actual 54)

41) Garrett Celek 24 receiving yards (actual 26)

42) Louis Murphy would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 46 yards below average)

43) Pierre Garcon 6.7 receptions (actual = 7)

44) Alfred Morris would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 28 yards below average)

45) Ryan Grant 4.7 fantasy points (actual 4.5)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 4 2015 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 276 1.4 289 1.8 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 248 1.5 247 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 270 1.3 249 1.3 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 4 2015 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 116 0.3 100 0.6 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 75 0.7 72 0.4 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 48 0.3 48 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 4 2015 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 72 0.2 88 0.5 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 68 0.2 66 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 39 0.3 38 0.2 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2015, w5