Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Michael Floyd 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

2) John Brown 40 receiving yards (actual 43)

3) Levine Toilolo 3.3 fantasy points (actual 3.4)

4) Justin Forsett 11.0 fantasy points (actual 11.1)

5) Torrey Smith 3.8 receptions (actual = 4)

6) Jerricho Cotchery 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

7) Greg Olsen 66 receiving yards (actual 62)

8) Kelvin Benjamin 10.5 fantasy points (actual 10.9)

9) Matt Forte 81 rushing yards (actual 80)

10) Jay Cutler would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 122 yards above average)

11) Brandon Marshall 11.5 fantasy points (actual 11.3)

12) Brandon Tate would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 20 yards above average)

13) Andy Dalton 20.6 fantasy points (actual 19.4)

14) Taylor Gabriel would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 27 yards below average)

15) Tony Romo 260 passing yards (actual 250)

16) Emmanuel Sanders would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 71 yards below average)

17) Joique Bell would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 36 yards above average)

18) Aaron Rodgers 25.5 fantasy points (actual 26.0)

19) Jordy Nelson 97 receiving yards (actual 107)

20) Randall Cobb 11.4 fantasy points (actual 11.9)

21) Davante Adams would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 55 yards above average)

22) Andrew Luck 25.7 fantasy points (actual 24.6)

23) Allen Hurns would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 38 yards below average)

24) Mike Wallace 66 receiving yards (actual 67)

25) Charles Clay 36 receiving yards (actual 35)

26) Ryan Tannehill 238 passing yards (actual 244)

27) Tom Brady would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 144 yards above average)

28) Julian Edelman 9.7 fantasy points (actual 10.1)

29) Rueben Randle 61 receiving yards (actual 58)

30) Eric Decker 57 receiving yards (actual 54)

31) James Jones 56 receiving yards (actual 56)

32) Derek Carr would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 99 yards above average)

33) Nick Foles projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

34) Zach Ertz 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

35) Antonio Brown 6.8 receptions (actual = 7)

36) LeVeon Bell 89 rushing yards (actual 82)

37) Philip Rivers 24.7 fantasy points (actual 25.8)

38) Antonio Gates 8.7 fantasy points (actual 8.7)

39) Eddie Royal 52 receiving yards (actual 49)

40) Jared Cook 3.6 receptions (actual = 4)

41) Austin Davis 248 passing yards (actual 236)

42) Mike Evans 53 receiving yards (actual 55)

43) Niles Paul would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 57 yards below average)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 6 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 284 2.0 286 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 296 2.0 254 1.5 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 250 1.8 225 1.5 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 6 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 119 0.8 105 0.6 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 81 0.6 80 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 34 0.2 41 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 6 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 80 0.3 85 0.6 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 60 0.4 61 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 50 0.4 44 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w7