Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) John Brown 5.1 fantasy points (actual 5.1)

2) Devin Hester 29 receiving yards (actual 32)

3) Levine Toilolo 14 receiving yards (actual 14)

4) Joe Flacco 20.5 fantasy points (actual 20.6)

5) Robert Woods 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

6) Jerricho Cotchery 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

7) Martellus Bennett 60 receiving yards (actual 59)

8) Andy Dalton 246 passing yards (actual 244)

9) Giovani Bernard 67 total yards (actual 64 yards)

10) Tony Romo projected pass TD 1.9 (actual 2)

11) Jason Witten 46 receiving yards (actual 49)

12) Cole Beasley 5.8 fantasy points (actual 5.7)

13) Terrance Williams 6.4 fantasy points (actual 6.8)

14) Wes Welker 4.0 fantasy points (actual 4.2)

15) Demaryius Thomas would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 115)

16) Emmanuel Sanders 6.2 receptions (actual = 6)

17) Matthew Stafford 21.1 fantasy points (actual 21.6)

18) Aaron Rodgers 25.0 fantasy points (actual 24.4)

19) Jordy Nelson 88 receiving yards (actual 86)

20) Randall Cobb 77 receiving yards (actual 80)

21) Eddie Lacy 26 receiving yards (actual 26)

22) DeAndre Hopkins would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 75 yards below average)

23) Hakeem Nicks 3.2 receptions (actual = 3)

24) Andrew Luck would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 160)

25) T.Y. Hilton would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 96 yards below average)

26) Charles Clay 44 receiving yards (actual 45)

27) Ryan Tannehill 246 passing yards (actual 259)

28) Jarvis Landry 60 receiving yards (actual 55)

29) Tom Brady would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 80)

30) Drew Brees 293 passing yards (actual 281)

31) Jimmy Graham 56 receiving yards (actual 54)

32) Mark Ingram 12.6 fantasy points (actual 12.1)

33) Andre Williams 42 rushing yards (actual 43)

34) Chris Ivory 9.5 fantasy points (actual 9.7)

35) Riley Cooper 37 receiving yards (actual 37)

36) Zach Ertz 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

37) Ben Roethlisberger projected pass TD 1.9 (actual 2)

38) Heath Miller 42 receiving yards (actual 41)

39) Markus Wheaton 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

40) Philip Rivers 279 passing yards (actual 291)

41) Malcom Floyd 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

42) Antonio Gates 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

43) Marshawn Lynch 103 total yards (actual 96 yards)

44) Russell Wilson 230 passing yards (actual 239)

45) Michael Crabtree 42 receiving yards (actual 41)

46) Colin Kaepernick 206 passing yards (actual 204)

47) Jared Cook 39 receiving yards (actual 37)

48) Mike Evans 11.9 fantasy points (actual 11.4)

49) Kendall Wright 7.5 fantasy points (actual 7.9)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 17 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 276 1.3 283 1.9 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 240 1.3 248 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 198 1.0 219 1.2 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 17 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 79 0.8 109 0.8 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 104 0.2 83 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 42 0.2 39 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 17 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 87 0.8 90 0.7 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 55 0.3 61 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 47 0.2 43 0.2 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w18

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