Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Rashard Mendenhall 48 rushing yards (actual 47)

2) Larry Fitzgerald 5.7 receptions (actual = 6)

3) Matt Ryan 277 passing yards (actual 280)

4) Tony Gonzalez 53 receiving yards (actual 56)

5) Roddy White 80 receiving yards (actual 91)

6) Fred Jackson 64 rushing yards (actual 60)

7) Scott Chandler 5.6 fantasy points (actual 5.5)

8) DeAngelo Williams 103 total yards (actual 108 yards)

9) Ted Ginn 6.9 fantasy points (actual 6.6)

10) Greg Olsen 9.7 fantasy points (actual 10.2)

11) Cam Newton projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

12) Brandon Marshall 13.1 fantasy points (actual 13.4)

13) Alshon Jeffery 90 receiving yards (actual 80)

14) Andy Dalton projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

15) Marvin Jones 56 receiving yards (actual 61)

16) Dez Bryant 91 receiving yards (actual 99)

17) Demaryius Thomas 5.8 receptions (actual = 6)

18) Reggie Bush 12.6 fantasy points (actual 12.5)

19) Maurice Jones-Drew 93 total yards (actual 90 yards)

20) Chad Henne would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 110 yards above average)

21) Jamaal Charles would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 86 yards below average)

22) Alex Smith would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual )

23) Greg Jennings 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

24) Drew Brees would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 381)

25) Pierre Thomas 8.8 fantasy points (actual 8.3)

26) Jimmy Graham 12.8 fantasy points (actual 13.1)

27) Geno Smith 17.1 fantasy points (actual 18.0)

28) LeSean McCoy 20.4 fantasy points (actual 19.4)

29) Zach Ertz 42 receiving yards (actual 43)

30) LeVeon Bell 16.1 fantasy points (actual 15.6)

31) Antonio Gates 3.9 receptions (actual = 4)

32) Ryan Mathews 15.2 fantasy points (actual 15.5)

33) Keenan Allen 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

34) Marshawn Lynch 16.3 fantasy points (actual 16.1)

35) Colin Kaepernick 22.2 fantasy points (actual 22.8)

36) Mike Glennon 220 passing yards (actual 219)

37) Tim Wright 4.7 receptions (actual = 5)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected ImpactWeek 172013Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 245 1.9 269 1.9 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 238 1.3 261 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 254 1.1 230 1.2 174 0.9
RB Projected ImpactWeek 172013Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 110 1.0 107 0.7 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 62 0.2 79 0.4 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 44 0.2 40 0.2 174 0.9
WR Projected ImpactWeek 172013Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 75 0.4 85 0.6 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 59 0.3 63 0.3 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 42 0.4 41 0.2 174 0.9

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2013, w18