What is a good way to factor in risk when ranking early round players of the same position, with similar projected values? Over the years I've found a lot of topics that point out that risk should be calculated into your player rankings but they never truly explain how.
I think injury history is the biggest for me. Gut feeling also plays in. For me, owning a player in the past who went to total crap will usually scar me at least for the next year. Doug Martin is a good example of this. I believe it was last year everyone jumped back on his bandwagon it seemed and he was going in 2nd/3rd round, but I stayed far away as a previous owner who lived through the bad days.
Maybe a better example is Arian Foster who is borderline first round talent... He's probably a guy I'd stay away from. When he's on the field, he's great, but the odds of that haven't been great lately it seems. It's also personal preference really and I don't think there's a set way to determine it other than if it comes down to say Foster or Forte or Murray when I'm looking for an RB, I'd go another direction than Foster.
