Just wondering, in a snake draft format, if there's a good way to determine the best draft slot based on the custom value-based rankings. My initial thought was to add the values of the #1 & #24 picks, the #2 & #23 picks, #3 & #22, etc, and compare those 12 totals, recognizing that after the first two rounds of the draft, the values don't differ a whole lot. But even doing this, the #1 and #24 picks always seem to add up to the highest total because as you proceed in the draft, the values get closer together.
Or maybe you need to look at the difference in value between the the #1 and the #2, and add that to the difference in value between the #24 and #25 to get the total. Am I looking at this right? It doesn't seem like having the first pick should always be an advantage.
Having the first pick is often an advantage. I think a better way to look at it, and I realize this is a less statistically sound perspective to take on, perhaps to my detriment (I digress), but I think the best way to look at it if you're choosing the best draft slot, is to tier the top players on your draft board. Whether that's 1,2,3,4, or more guys in your tier of players before you think there's a big step down, I think that's the spot to aim for, because it's quicker to get back to you in the second round and, as you said, the further you get in the draft, the less draft slot matters. i.e. I love Eddie Lacy, and his ADP is 3. Beyond Eddie Lacy, I'm far less excited about Lynch/Charles, but I also love Peterson, Bell, and Brown. So I think 4 is my ideal draft slot this year. Just a thought...
What I do is I count how many players I would LOVE to have on my team. I think this year it was 26 or 27. So that means for me to ensure 3 of those guys in a 10-team, I'd want any pick before pick 7, in a 12 any pick before 4, and so on.
Bump
