I pick 6th in a 12 team redraft that has 3 quirks.
1. Passing TD's are 6 points
2. It's 0.5 PPR
3. No TE (TE's treated as WRs)- start 1 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 Flex (WR/TE/RB)
After putting my scoring system into the full impact VBD system, it shows Brees as the 6th most valuable player. I know my league pretty well, and the 5 ranked ahead of him (top 4 RBs and Manning) are likely to be the picks. I am generally a proponent of waiting on QB. However, with the 6 pt passing TDs and the high flying Saints offense, is it wise to take Brees? I love Brees this year, and I am very tempted to take him, unless one of the top 4 RB's falls. If I do take Brees, are there specific targets for my position in rounds 2-3?
Not bad logic. My thinking is that grabbing a guy like Lacy in the first allows you not to have to take upside backs in the 4-6 rounds trying to strike gold and overdraft mid-tier backs. You have a guy like Lacy, that gives you the freedom to draft for value in the 2-6 rounds, and still get good QB's later that are likely to put up great numbers either way.
That being said, Brees is head and shoulders above the QB's ranked 4th on down, so nabbing him definitely doesn't put you in trouble. He's about as consistent as it gets in fantasy football, and your logic is sound.
I'd probably grab Eddie Lacy and wait on a QB, but I'm not opposed to grabbing Brees. He's certainly a stud and has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers out there for a long while now.
If you do go Brees, I'd be looking at a slipping running back or the best WR on the board. Looking at our rankings, I'd be looking WR if one of the top five on our board is available, and RB if someone like Montee Ball, Lynch, DeMarco Murray, or Giovanni Bernard are there. A PPR gives Bernard extra value. Then in the third round, I'd try to catch a sliding WR like Antonio Brown or Jordy Nelson. If they aren't there, I might gamble on a guy like Doug Martin.
I am now looking at this from a little different angle. Let me know if this logic is solid or flawed.
If I take Lacy in round 1, I am likely to get a QB from the group going around round 9. I usually take one in round 8 to make sure I get one I like. Based on the full impact cheatsheet, Brees is projected to outscore these guys, in this scoring system, by about 5-6 ppg.
If I take Brees in round 1, in round , the RBs available in round 8 are about a 4 ppg drop off from Lacey. There are WRs available that would be only about a 3 ppg difference from Lacey. (The lineup is flexible enough, I could paly 1 RB and 4 WR if needed).
If I look at it as the combined value of player in round 1 and 8, it looks like, based on projections, I come out slightly better with Brees. Of course this theory assumes that the players I take in round 2-7 is a static value either way.
Are there any issues with this logic?
