The fantasy season is 25% over and in a 10 team standard scoring league, 6 Pts TD for all positions. Teams who have had the least scoring against them are 4-0. Teams with more points for (PF), are 2-2. A team that averages more than 8.6 PF over the 4-0 team but due to the schedule, match ups and other variables averages 22.5 points more against is 2-2. So the law of averages says that in the long run the higher scoring team will win more often VS those that score less. Trouble is there are only 14 games and long run averages mean nothing in good old Fantasy Football. I have contended that one could throw darts to pick players and with favorable opponent / team match ups one could be successful and just as likely to win a league. It is much like the televised poker games, you are only as good as the hand your dealt. If your opponent is dealt a better card on the River draw, even though you held the advantage until then, you lose. So all the posturing and all the brainstorming based on match ups, statistics, and other data to find the best line up, is still at the mercy of something even less predictable than the card draw where one can play off of percentages. Injuries, player motivation, coaching / game plan, weather can influence the outcome. There is first, second, third and fourth place, but there never is justice. Hence a Crap Shoot!
Great topic and discussion guys. I agree with a lot of stuff said. It is a crap shoot, and I agree about the long run not being that long at all. But I also agree with "wellman" that you can put yourself in good position to win.
Every since I started helping with the news here at the site, I feel like I've been even more successful than in the past. I think a big part is knowing how teams are going to use players. Obviously there are studs you want to draft and play, and know they are going to get their touches, but the key is to keep learning every week because so much changes.
Here's an example, there's a beat writer in Dallas who predicted Jason Witten's numbers would be down this year before the season even started and he's been right on. Things like that are so vital and key when it comes to drafting and trading. This is the kind of stuff that puts you in position to make the playoffs in every one of your leagues, avoiding guys and go after guys that others in your league likely have no idea about.
Now, once you get to the playoffs, then it's a crap shoot. One bad game or one fluke play is the difference. I think getting to the playoffs is a good measuring stick for your fantasy success. A lot has to go right once you get there to win that isn't always in your control.
Very interesting, good stuff! I'm grabbing Moreno in any league that I can stash him, because if he comes back in three weeks, then everyone will want to grab him. I'm sure he'll be available in scattered positions over the next few weeks though.
Love the rant, and nice about the early bye weeks... not a strategy I've thought about until you said it!
I think it's important to keep up to date and use informed decision making, but prognostication itself is very tricky and fickle business. Injuries also make a big difference.
That is good stuff!!
This is an interesting discussion to me. Forgive me if I go on too long about this hehe.
We have all been frustrated when we follow good processes and logic, but unexpected things go against us and we get a loss (or a few). However, I do think there are ways to tilt the odds in your favor. There are reasons, that in some leagues, the same few guys seem to be at or near the top every year. I believe the way to improve your odds comes down to 2 things: knowledge and depth.
I generally don't play in anything less than 12 team leagues, with a minimum of 15 roster slots. 14 and 16 team leagues are even better. In some deep leagues, I drafted guys, that some others in the league have never heard of, that now have fantasy value. I am sure that this is true of many playes, who are savy enough to be on a site like this.
Another way to take advantage of knowledge, is to continually buy low and sell high throughout the season. Casual fans might be wowed, by a fluke 3 TD game, or be down on a player who started otu with a couple of tough matchups. You might lose a game or two based on bad luck, but more often than not, a savy owner will always make the playoffs, and be in contention. Grant it, once in the playoffs, anything can happen, but knowledgable owners should be in contention more often than not.
I do think you make a good point about the "long run". I have played in an average of probably 8 leagues per year for the last decade. That comes out to about 80 fantasy football teams. Out of those 80, I think 4 have failed to make the playoffs. I have made it to at least one championshoip in 9 out of 10 years. Most years, I have been in 2-3 championship games. I have never gone 2 years in a row without winning at least one championship. In my best year I won 5 championships. (It was the year A. Foster blew up, and I had drafted him in almost every league, among many snickers. I was also heavily invested in Vick, who had a phenomenal year.)
I am not saying all this to toot my own horn. I am sure many owners here have a similar resume. The point is, that over the "long run" you can definitely tilt the odds in your favor. Through knowledge and depth.
So how is any of this useful? Once you handle your BYE weeks, stack your bench with depth. By depth, I mean players that you can see a clear logical path to being a weekly fantasy starter. Dump the BYE week filelr guys, and the flex guys that you only play out of desparation but don't trust. Load up on backup RBs, young emerging WRs, or anyone an injury away from being an every week starter. (note: this is one reason I like early BYE weeks). For example, in a league were I have R. Wilson, who just had his BYE, I dropped my fill in QB for McKinnon. I don't need a BYE filer any more, and McKinnon has a path to starting value if they start giving him more touches, or if Asiata gets hurt. This is just one example, but the principle can be widely applied.
One last thought. Another way to take advantage of knowledge, is to try and get the waiver pickup this week, that everyone else will be wanting in a week or two. For example, I picked up M. Jones last week in two leagues. I had the bench space, and dumped some underperformers. M. Jones has a clear path to starter value. In one of those leagues, I used Jones as a throw in, in a deal to get Lacy. In the other, he is going to be a bench player for depth, until he performs.
Anyway, forgive the rant, I hope this was interesting to someone.
