Hey guys - my one league is starting keepers this year (my first time in a keeper league), so I was examining how to possibly establish a formula to define a "keeper value". League rules are that you can keep one guy drafted in the 6th round or later as long as he stayed on your roster the entire season. You give up the pick for one round earlier as the keeper's cost. For example - you want to keep your 6th round pick, you give up your 5th rounder, etc. So to identify value, my thinking was this: the player's Keeper Cost is the round you're giving up your pick, if you subtract from that the player's current ADP it should give you a rough "keeper value" in numerical format. As an example - my three possibilities for keepers from last year that fit the criteria are Russell Wilson(8th round), Pierre Thomas(9th) and Michael Floyd(10th). With Wilson's current ADP for a 12 team league at 10.10, 7 (keeper cost) - 10.10 = -3.10 (not good value), but Floyd, 9 (keeper cost) - 5.02 = 3.98 is very good value. Thomas is in between with 1.92 keeper value. Does this logic seem to make sense? Any thoughts or holes in the logic? Comments are much appreciated.
That's rough on Jeffrey man, I've had similar things happen to me in the past. I'm with Scott, I think you have a good basis, but I think positional value will have to play in as well. Like, Montee Ball for a 6th round pick would mean more to me than Colin Kaepernick in the 13th, even though the ADP might not be far off...
Nick, that seems like a pretty good way to at least get an idea. Check out this part of our sit as well: https://www.4for4.com/keeper-league-rankings which may also help you out. Using no formula's and just my gut, I think you have it narrowed down pretty well with Floyd or Thomas. Thomas might have a little more value to me in PPR league, but there seem to be some risks as far as his carries dropping. I'm thinking the choice is Floyd...
Note: the best keeper from last year using this formula results in Le'Veon Bell who was drafted in 8th round, current ADP at 2.05, results in 4.95 keeper value. The best would've been Alshon Jeffrey who was drafted in the 10th round and has current ADP of 2.09 a value of 7.91. But, of course that bone-headed owner (me) had to drop him early in the year before he broke out due to roster constraints and lost him on waivers.
