Friday, March 13, 2015, 1:54pm
Stills has been extremely efficient in his short career, posting the #1 FP/target (in both formats) as a rookie. He followed that up with a #9 (PPR) finish in the same category last season. Some of this has to do with the productivity of the Saints’ passing game, but Stills was by far the most productive wideout in New Orleans the last two seasons. He joins a Miami receiving corps that is in transition. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are gone, so there are starter’s snaps available opposite Jarvis Landry. It’s definitely a quarterback downgrade, though he should see an uptick from the 5.5 T/G he averaged in 2014.
Update: The deal is for four years and $18 million, with $9 million guaranteed.
This is not an ideal landing spot from a fantasy standpoint. Not only is Spiller's upside capped by the presence of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, but he limits Ingram's upside as well. He'll likely take over the role of Pierre Thomas, who averaged 11.6 touches per game over the last two seasons. Thomas finished with a top 30 PPG (PPR) in six of the last seven seasons, so that's a reasonable target for Spiller. In short, he has upside in this offense, but his workload will be limited in a committee.
Update: The deal is worth up to $3 million over two years, with incentives.
McFadden turns 28 in August and he hasn't cracked 3.5 YPC since 2011 (when he rushed for 5.4 YPC). It's an interesting signing given the Dallas offensive line, which may be the best run-blocking unit in the league. But 2014 was the first time that McFadden played a full season; he has missed 26% of his team's games in his seven-year career. We'll see what else the Cowboys do at running back before going down this road once again.
Update: The deal is for $15 million over two years, which is what the Browns reportedly offered. Cameron wanted out of Cleveland.
Miami is a better landing spot than Cleveland. After finishing #5 in 2013, Cameron only posted 2.4 catches per game last season and finished #24 in standard formats. His targets dropped from 7.9 to 4.8 per game, which didn't make much sense since the Browns were without Josh Gordon for most of the season. He should see an increase in targets since the Dolphins gave Charles Clay 6.0 T/G in 2014 and 6.2 T/G over the last two years. Clay finished #13 in PPR PPG, and Cameron is probably an upgrade as a receiver. He’s a real threat to finish in the top 10 if he stays healthy. (Concussions are a concern.)
It's reportedly a 3-year, $12M deal. Philadelphia would have been a good landing spot for Mathews before the team agreed to terms with DeMarco Murray. The Eagles ran the ball a lot more than the Chargers did, but they'll be hard-pressed to find enough carries for Mathews to allow him to maintain his RB2 value from his days in San Diego. The signing is also a downgrade for Murray, whose workload is surely to take a hit from the 449 touches he saw in 2014.
Johnson is only 28 and is a good possession receiver so he shouldn't be unemployed for long.
Murray will get $42 million over five years, including $21 million in guaranteed money, per reports.
Although the Cowboys said they wanted Murray to return, they never came close to meeting his contract demands, citing the diminished value of the running back and the decline in production as they get older.
Murray had a career year in his fourth season, racking up 2,261 total yards and 13 touchdowns on 449 touches. He should get plenty of work in Philadelphia, though the signing of Ryan Mathews and the presence of Darren Sproles indicate that he won’t approach 450 touches in 2015. LeSean McCoy averaged 353 touches over the past two seasons, so that’s probably Murray’s best-case scenario if everyone stays healthy. He’ll hold low-end RB1 value, though the presence of Mathews and Sproles may make that a stretch.
Forsett should see his PPR upside increase due to new OC Marc Trestman's tendency to use his running backs in the passing game. Under Trestman, Matt Forte caught 176 passes in the last two seasons, including 102 catches in 2014. Forsett caught 44 passes last season, and could potentially see that number double if he's the RB1 for the Ravens in 2015. However, the loss of OC Gary Kubiak is likely to hurt the Ravens’ running game. As the #8 RB in both standard and PPR formats in 2014, he'll likely hold RB2-type draft value if he continues as the lead back in Baltimore.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015, 6:43pm
Chandler is a decent tight end, but the Bills are looking to upgrade to Clay, who is a better receiver.
Johnson will likely start opposite T.Y. Hilton. It’s a big upgrade from a quality-of-quarterback standpoint, as he has never played with one as good as Andrew Luck. His targets are likely to take a hit, however. He averaged 9.7 T/G in 2014, while Hilton and Reggie Wayne led the Colts with 8.7 and 7.7 T/G, respectively. So this looks like a case of the targets dropping but the quality of those targets increasing. After finishing in the top 10 (in PPR) in five of his previous six seasons, Johnson finished #28 in 2014. He’s turning 34 this offseason, so it may be foolhardy to expect a huge bounceback season, but low-end WR2 numbers in PPR formats seem reasonable. His arrival puts a big dent in Donte Moncrief's prospects.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015, 2:43pm