Ivory and Bilal Powell had a nearly 50-50 split in carries last season, so it’s conceivable that Johnson could see about a 35%-40% decline in carries if the Jets stick to that formula. Johnson also provides insurance if Ivory, who has durability concerns, misses time.
A 35% to 40% decline would put Johnson in the 167-181 carry range, though we'd guess that he'll get at least 190 to 210 carries in the Jets' run-heavy offense. (Bilal Powell rushed the ball 176 times in 2013.) The Jets have averaged 493.5 carries over the past two seasons, so it's conceivable that Ivory and Johnson could both reach around 200 carries, provided they both stay healthy. Assuming 240 total touches for Johnson (200 carries, 40 catches) at his 2012-2013 FP/touch rate (.609), he would score around 146 fantasy points, or RB20 numbers.
Johnson will form a one-two punch with incumbent Chris Ivory, who started to run better as the season wore on. Obviously this is bad news for Ivory, who isn't likely to see a 'bell cow' type workload with Johnson on the roster. Neither player looks like a fantasy RB2 until we have an idea of how the depth chart and workload shake out.
In standard formats, Johnson has finished #16 or better in each of his six seasons with the Titans, and managed to finish #12 and #9 in 2012 and 2013. He'll be 29 in September, but he's unlikely to land in a role where he'll get 300+ touches, which has been the norm in Tennessee. His detractors say that his explosion is no longer there, and while the Titans' O-line has struggled, Johnson hasn't produced as many big plays. From 2010 to 2011, Johnson gained 20+ yards on a single play 29 times. In 2012 and 2013, he gained 20+ yards just 18 times. He'll be fantasy relevant in 2014, but his days of 18+ touches per game are probably over.
Chris Johnson's contract that calls for him to earn $8 million in salary this year clearly has been an obstacle to him staying in Tennessee. But even if the contract wasn't an issue the Titans probably would want to purge Johnson. The reason? New coach Ken Whisenhunt likes to spread around playing time and touches between multiple running backs. His plan is to have a running back by committee. Johnson is the type of player who demands the football and never would be happy as a role player. A trade or release, subsequently, is coming.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014, 8:20pm
Monday, March 31, 2014, 9:05am
Friday, March 28, 2014, 8:32pm
Tate, who's been in Cleveland since Thursday night, should be under contract today as long he passes his physical, John Telich of Fox 8 News tweeted Saturday morning.
Tate is coming off broken ribs and has battled other injuries in his four-year career, including a broken ankle that sidelined him his entire rookie season.
Update: Adam Schefter reports that the deal is complete.
Tate wants to be a feature back and it looks like he'll have his chance in Cleveland if the team's doctors give him medical clearance. Tate has averaged 4.7 YPC in his career and has touched the ball at least 15 times in 13 career games, averaging 94.5 yards and 0.54 TD in the process. That equates to 12.7 fantasy points, which is about what Chris Johnson averaged as the #9 RB in 2013. Touchdowns are going to be tougher to come by in Cleveland than they were in Houston, but as a likely feature back, Tate's ADP will probably settle somewhere in the 3rd to 5th rounds depending on the quality of his backup.
Titans RB Chris Johnson said he’s closer to 100 percent after the first surgery of his career. The procedure repaired a torn meniscus, but doctors have not yet cleared him to run. The next phase of rehab will be in a swimming pool, strengthening the muscles around his left knee.
Johnson was injured in the Week 3 win against the Chargers but said he never considered having surgery during the season. He’s rarely missed a practice in six seasons as a pro.
“I have never been a guy to sit out when something was hurt. The only way I would sit out is if there was no way possible I could play. If I can work through it, I want to play. I want to be out there to help my team win, and that’s the way it’s always been,” he said.
“I am not going to make excuses, but you can talk to anybody who’s had a torn meniscus and they know how it affects you. I’m not going to sit here and tell you if I wouldn’t have had a torn meniscus I would have had 1,600-1,700 rushing yards last year, but my teammates know what I was going through.”
Johnson is a bounce back candidate if he lands in a good environment. He obviously blames the knee (at least partially) for his struggles in 2013, but it's not like Shonn Greene (3.8 YPC) was any better. The Titans struggled in run blocking and that hurt Johnson as well. The issue now is his salary, and he has already said he's not going to take a pay cut.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014, 11:41am
Monday, February 24, 2014, 1:28pm
"I like what I've seen out of him off the tape," Whisenhunt said.
Greene is an uninspiring option, but may be fantasy relevant in 2014 if Johnson departs and the team doesn't bring in talent at the running back position.
Former Pro Bowl running back Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans will have a knee scope Tuesday to repair a meniscus he tore in Week 3, according to a league source, and seems a virtual certainty to hit the free-agent market this spring.
A torn meniscus is usually not a big deal, but it's another red flag for Johnson, who set a career low in YPC (3.9), though it might explain why he struggled running the ball. He turns 29 in September, so he may be disappointed with the type of deal he gets in free agency.
“I feel like if they are not going to use me the way I am supposed to be used and let me be the horse, then I would rather them let me move on. Their money would be wasted on me,” Johnson said. “I feel like if they are not going to use me right, let somebody get me that’s going to use me the right way.”
“I have to be fed. A lot of games I started getting hot and they took me out. I know a lot of people say I didn’t have any home runs this year. Well, those runs don’t come easy. They come once you keep getting the ball.”
Johnson is likely to be traded (or cut) this summer.
According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Titans HC Mike Munchak has been fired.
Friday, December 20, 2013, 6:36pm