CBS ADP Produces the Biggest Draft Values vs. 4for4 Rankings
Welcome to Part IV, the final part in our series dissecting ADP data from specific sites and comparing it to our industry-leading 4for4 rankings. By doing this, we are unearthing major draft values and some players to avoid.
For those drafting on CBS, we found the biggest values of any of the sites here.
The purpose of this series is simple. ADP is critical to savvy fantasy drafters. It is the key to finding value, but only the first step. Comparing ADP to your rankings is exactly one of the staples I wrote about in our tutorial on finding sleepers. ADP is crucial to finding sleepers, and you should be using ADP in conjunction with rankings that are tailored to match your specific league's’ scoring system.
The flip side of that is also true: Savvy owners must use that same ADP-rankings junction to find players to avoid in fantasy drafts.
What may be most useful of all to drafters are the downloadable CSVs located at the bottom of each article in this series. The downloadable tables tell you exactly how much more or how much less we like a player compared to where they are being drafted. Each part has downloadable CSVs for both standard and PPR leagues.
It’s time to cross-reference that “fantasy big data” with our rankings to unearth steals and busts in standard leagues, but again, don’t forget we also have a PPR table at the end of this article as well.
CBS Average Draft Position Data
Unlike NFL.com, ESPN, and Yahoo!, who offer a composite list of rankings that is basically the average of all their fantasy experts, all I could find at CBS.com was the rankings for each individual CBS fantasy football writer.
The rankings list inside CBS mock draft rooms are also the same, whether you are mocking a standard or PPR league. From what I can tell looking at the separated CBS expert rankings lists and comparing those to the rankings inside the CBS draft app, it appears the rankings inside the CBS draft app are an average of the standard expert rankings.
As we’ve seen in earlier parts of this series, the site using standard rankings in all draft rooms creates great value for those of us in PPR leagues, because players more valuable in that format get shuffled down the rankings list inside the draft room. In either format, a draft room’s rankings create some inherent bias in that site’s ADP, as many picks are being made using that site’s rankings. Below are plenty of values and overpriced picks that have more than a three-round difference between CBS ADP and 4for4’s rankings (the most accurate in the industry over the past six years).
Standard Scoring: Overvalued
RB Jay Ajayi (was -78, now -18)
CBS drafters have caught up to the fact that Ajayi is at best in a timeshare, but it's important to still note that you should pass even at his depressed draft cost. Did we also mention Foster has been practicing all training camp with the first team? Think of all the ways new head coach Adam Gase has tried this offseason to not make Ajayi his lead back: attempting to re-sign Lamar Miller, signing C.J. Anderson to an offer sheet, and now signing and giving first-team reps to Foster. Choosing Ajayi in the 5th round is ludicrous at this point. Maybe he’ll turn into the lead back down the road, but his price is too high on CBS.
RB James White (-60)
The love for James White in CBS standard scoring leagues has gone too far since Dion Lewis's second surgery reports. He is far more valuable in PPR formats than standard, and even there we are skeptical he will be as valuable as the final month of last season or keep the job once Lewis comes back. Lewis is a much more dynamic back. White is being drafted in the 10th round in standard leagues, and that's still a reach to us. We have a much better option at that point in your draft below for a running back with upside.
QB Tom Brady (was -54, now -93)
I’m including Brady because people may see him at the bottom of the table and not realize Brady’s case is different than the rest. He’s suspended four games. Therefore, our projections for him are only over 12 games. That severely pushes him down our preseason rankings list; however, we are not saying Brady is literally the 26th-best quarterback in fantasy (where we rank him). Quite the contrary: if you take our projected 249 points for him and divide it by 12 games, you get 20.75 FP/G. That would put him right at the top with our two highest-ranked quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers. Our ranking for Brady is based on his projected season-long fantasy points -- we don't think he will perform poorly once back from suspension. Everybody else at the bottom of our tables, however, is a product of being overvalued in drafts based on our rankings.
TE Tyler Eifert (was -42, now -12)
The Bengals own website is reporting Eifert isn’t supposed to be back until at least early in the regular season. His ADP has caught up to this fact, but I actually wouldn't mind using a 9th or 10th round pick in leagues where you have an IR spot to stash him. With how deep we believe TE is in fantasy drafts this season, you can find another TE to fill in for Eifert until he returns (Allen, Miller, Ebron come to mind).
The ‘Do Not Draft’ List
Here are the names that did not make the cut in 4for4’s Top 200 rankings but are being drafted in CBS leagues/mock drafts. You would be wise to take these names off your draft board:
- RB Kenyan Drake
- RB Cameron Artis-Payne
- WR Breshad Perriman
- WR Pharoh Cooper
- RB Tyler Ervin
- RB KaDeem Carey
Continue reading for seven values, ten fliers on CBS and two downloadable CSVs (Standard and PPR) so you can find your own sleepers.