DraftKings Week 6 Cash Game Breakdown

DraftKings Week 6 Cash Game Breakdown

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last updated Oct 14, 2016

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

When managing DFS lineups every week, it can be very tempting to build teams that satisfy the desire to win more often rather than build lineups that win more money. In other words, many DFS owners would rather lock in a small win every week than risk a huge loss, even if the riskier approach is more profitable. 

Assume that you play $100 in head-to-head games each week and you can build a lineup that you think has a 90% chance of profiting $10 each week or a lineup that has a 50% chance of netting $25 each week. Which lineup would you choose?

If your goal is long-term profit, your answer should be the latter -- the lineup with a 50% chance to win has an expectation of a $12.50 profit ($25 X .50), while the “safer” lineup has an expected profit of just $9. Psychologically, most of us aren’t wired to handle big losses, even if we know that risking a big loss is the most profitable long-term approach. Too many times, we confuse probability (90% chance to win) with expectation ($12.50 in profit) and end up with a suboptimal approach, not just to DFS, but to many walks of life. 

The most practical application of this idea in cash games is when two of the best values of the week come from the same team or the same game. Although stacking in cash games is generally frowned upon, assuming some risk and not always playing the “safest” lineup can be optimal, especially if you play exclusively head-to-head games, where for every extra point you score, you can potentially win a larger percentage of your contests.

In addition to considering expectation versus probability, you can follow this set of DraftKings cash game guidelines, which serve as a friendly reminder of what you should be looking for when building your cash game lineups. As always, be sure to take a look at the “Other Players I’d Consider in Cash” section, as you should never be blindly placing a single lineup into any contest. 


QB Cam Newton $8,100 @ NO

Carolina is coming off of short rest after playing on Monday night, but Cam hasn’t played in two weeks after missing Week 5 with a concussion. Newton is the highest priced quarterback of the week, but the Panthers also have the highest implied point total of the week. When healthy this year, Cam has accounted for 80% of Carolina’s touchdowns. 

Continue reading for more of TJ's top cash game plays.

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Filed Under: w6, 2016

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