WR vs. CB Matchups to Exploit & Avoid in DFS - Week 3

WR vs. CB Matchups to Exploit & Avoid in DFS - Week 3

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last updated Sep 25, 2016

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

When it comes to selecting receivers in DFS, it’s important to understand who will cover them, as sometimes defense versus position stats alone don't tell the whole story. In addition, there can many times be defensive injuries that will have a significant, and perhaps hidden, effect on a receiver's matchup. Below we'll take a deeper look at the matchups that should help in your WR decisions for Week 3.

Note: Any unlisted matchups -- especially those of prominent WRs -- should generally be considered a push.


Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Exploit: Malcolm Butler lines up on the same side of DeAndre Hopkins, so he should see most of Nuk on Sunday afternoon. Butler hasn't been good in coverage, allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route run and nearly 12.2 yards per target on 13 targets. Fire up Hopkins in all formats this week.

Be cautious: Justin Coleman will line up on fellow rookie, Will Fuller, on the other side of Hopkins. Coleman has been solid in 98 snaps, as he's been thrown at just six times, limiting the fantasy opportunities of those he covers.

Exploit: Julian Edelman plays all over the field in New England's offense. He's played 46 percent of his routes from the slot, which is where I see him lining up Thursday. He'll be covered inside by Kareem Jackson, who spends 81 percent of his coverage routes from the slot. Jackson has been thrown at seven times, allowing over eight yards per target, and struggles against slot receivers. I can see Jacoby Brissett leaning heavy on the reception monster, Edelman.


Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Exploit: For some reason, the Bills corners have regressed. Nickell Robey-Coleman is allowing nearly 0.25 points per route and has been one of the worst slot corners in the league. Robey-Coleman has been targeted just six times, but that number is going to go up as Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer are going to target him all afternoon.

Exploit: Ronald Darby, who should be facing Michael Floyd in primary coverage. Floyd does move around, so he could also see Stephon Gilmore, who could be on Starbucks' breakfast menu as a toast option. Darby has been thrown at 19 times, allowing 0.54 fantasy points per route. If Floyd gets Gilmore instead, it'll make for an even better matchup, as Gilmore is allowing 17.1 yards per target. The Cardinals receivers should feast in this matchup.

Update: Darby is out, upgrading the matchup for Floyd.

Avoid: Sammy Watkins is out. Bills WRs are on the avoid list.

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Filed Under: w3, 2016

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