Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks - Wild Card Round
Welcome back to Stacking the Deck. This season at 4for4 we will be providing subscribers with Value Reports and Stack Value Reports that value every stack in terms of projected points/$. We also use our Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) metric heavily in the column. What’s new this year is we know have the have the advantage of putting into practice two great offseason studies from my colleague, Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon: The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel and The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings.
Small slates are something I have experimented with at ton this year and I have three main takeaways:
1. Don't fade the studs.
2. Don't be afraid to game stack and secure volume in games with high Vegas totals.
3. Don't fade the chalk stacks completely, it is better to differentiate those stacks through unique correlation plays.
As always, we are going to focus on positive correlations in this column, but also put a higher emphasis on leverage plays in GPPs.
Russell Wilson ($7,700) & Jimmy Graham ($6,600) & Golden Tate ($6,100), SEA vs. DET
Pairing a quarterback with a teammate and his opponent's WR1 has a strong correlation. Seattle is a home favorite (-8) and face a Lions team who on paper gives up the sixth-fewest aFPA to QBs. When you dig deeper, it doesn't mean much. Detroit has made a name for themselves reducing opponents' snaps and pace all season long, but over the past two weeks the Lions' no-huddle percentage has spiked as they have significantly picked up the pace. On the other side, the Seahawks have ran the eighth-most offensive plays in the league over the past month. Graham has a premium matchup on a weak TE slate against a Lions defense ranked 25th in TE aFPA. Tate has a 26 percent target share over his last four games on a pass-heavy team at just $6,100.