Streaming Tight Ends: Week 9 Targets

Nov 03, 2015

For those new to tight end streaming, the idea is to identify a waiver wire tight end with a favorable matchup who is likely to post TE1 caliber fantasy points. The foundation for the matchup research is 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metric. As the season progresses and more data is available, aFPA gets more and more reliable. Volume, efficiency metrics, and Vegas lines are also considered when searching the waivers for tight end streamers.

Week 8 saw the optimal tight end streamer, Ben Watson, finish as the TE1 on the week, while Crockett Gillmore found the end zone and Larry Donnell had his day cut short by injury. Through eight games, tight end streamers are averaging 9.4 PPR fantasy points per game, equivalent to the TE12 on the season (minimum four games played), and optimal tight end picks have scored 14.7 PPR points per game, numbers that equate to the TE2 on the season.

Streaming candidates must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo leagues, in order to ensure that the picks are readily available in most leagues. As always, be sure to consider 4for4’s weekly rankings in case a highly ranked player is still available in your league.

Here are the tight end streaming picks for Week 9:

Heath Miller vs. Oakland

Probably not coincidentally, in Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury, Heath Miller saw his first double digit target game since Week 1. WIth LeVeon Bell out for the season, Roethlisberger now has a void to fill in the short passing game, and many of those targets will likely go the way of Heath.

Pittsburgh faces a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in tight end aFPA, allowing 19.4 schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points per game to the position. Week 8 was the first week that Oakland didn't allow a tight end to reach double digit fantasy points, and that was a function of playing a Geno Smith-led Jets offense that doesn’t utilize a tight end.

As 4.5 point favorites in a game with a 48 point over/under, the Steelers have one of the highest projected point totals of Week 9. A high scoring game would greatly benefit Heath Miller, who ranks third among tight ends in red zone targets, with nine, and is owned in just 29% of Yahoo leagues.