Never-Too-Early 2016 Rankings

Below you'll find my first stab at 2016 rankings for each position. I don't like to publish rankings prior to free agency and the draft, but I know that early mocks/drafts have already started up and 4for4 subscribers may be wondering where I stand on certain players heading into the offseason.

The rankings are based on a standard scoring system and the headers are pretty self-explanatory save for "DIFF" which is simiply the difference between my ranking and the current positiional ranking per Fantasy Football Calculator ADP. A positive number means that I'm relatively high on the player while a negative number means -- you guessed it -- that I'm relatively low on the player.

Below each set of rankings you'll find some discussion about a few players that jump out as particularly good or bad values heading into the spring.

Once again, the quarterback position looks very deep heading into the 2016 season. There are a few standouts at the top of the rankings and then there's a big plateau of passers who averaged between 17 and 19 points per game in 2015.

It appears that I'm particularly high on Tyrod Taylor, who had the 7th-highest PPG at his position (if we remove Geno Smith from the equation, which is usually a good rule). Taylor missed a couple of games which serves to depress his season-long numbers. He looks like a great value in the 10th/11th round as the 19th QB off the board in early mock drafts. He's also the 19th passer off the board in early MFL10s at MyFantasyLeague. The main concern with Taylor is that the Bills haven't fully committed to him as their franchise quarterback, which is perplexing given how much promise he has shown. From a production standpoint, there's a lot to like. He only threw for an average of 217 yards per game, but he had a 20-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio and his yards per attempt (7.99) was 5th in the league. However, what really makes him a fantasy producer is his ability in the running game. On average, he rushed 7.4 times per game for 41 yards and 0.29 rush TD. Assuming that he has a favorable offseason, owners looking for 2014 Russell Wilson or 2015 Carson Palmer should consider targeting Taylor in the later rounds.

I also think Philip Rivers will bounce back with the return of Keenan Allen and OC Ken Whisenhunt. Rivers was the QB5 under Whiz back in 2013.

The first name that jumps out is C.J. Anderson, who is going a full 12 spots later than I'd take him at this point in the offseason. He wasn’t fully healthy heading into the season and struggled at the onset, averaging just 2.69 YPC on 11.4 rushing attempts through the first six weeks of the season. He turned it around in a big way after the Week 7 bye, however, racking up an average of 64.5 yards on 11.6 carries (5.57 YPC) and 0.58 TD over his final 12 games, including the playoffs. Those are mid-level RB1 numbers in standard formats and low-end RB1 numbers in PPR. Moreover, the Broncos committed to Anderson down the stretch, feeding him 15.6 carries over the final five games. In that span, he averaged 13.7 fantasy points in standard (and 15.9 FP in PPR). Those averages would have been good enough to finish #3 in both formats. Even though he finished strong, playoff numbers don’t count for fantasy, so the fact remains that Anderson burned his owners in 2015. As a result, his ADP is likely to remain depressed heading into 2016 fantasy drafts. But Ronnie Hillman is unlikely to return after a poor finish (while Anderson is a restricted free agent and easier for the Broncos to retain), so the Denver backfield is one to monitor in the offseason. If Anderson returns as the clear RB1, he’s going to be a fantastic value in the 4th round and a solid value in the 3rd.

Danny Woodhead is also going ponderously low given his 2015 production. Woodhead finished 12th in standard formats and 3rd in PPR in 2015. He’ll have a new offensive coordinator, the aforementioned Ken Whisenhunt, who returns to the Chargers after coordinating the offense back in 2013. In that season, Woodhead averaged 9.3 FP (standard) and 13.8 FP (PPR) in 18 games, including the postseason. Those are solid RB2 (standard) and RB1 (PPR) numbers, respectively. Worries about the potential emergence of Melvin Gordon will depress Woodhead’s ADP, which is currently residing in the 7th round of early standard drafts. (Keep in mind that Ryan Mathews saw 285 carries in 2013 and Woody still got his.) He’s a fantastic target for owners who want to wait on value at the RB position.

Charles Sims also looks like a great value at his current ADP, which currently resides in the early 12th round at FFC. His MFL10 ADP (79th pick, 32nd RB off the board) seems much more sensible, but those are PPR drafts where he holds extra value. Sims quietly finished as the #22 RB in standard formats and #17 in PPR leagues, catching at least three passes in 10 of 16 games. He also averaged 4.94 YPC on 107 carries, so he showed the ability to be effective as a runner as well. GM Jason Licht went so far as to say that the team views Sims as a capable three-down back, so if Doug Martin moves on, Sims’ value would skyrocket this offseason. Even if Martin returns, Sims should provide decent RB2 production in both formats.

Why is Eric Decker the 29th WR off the board after finishing the season WR10? Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick is back, not much will change for the Jets and Decker was one of the most consistent fantasy receivers last season, posting 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in each of his 15 games played.

I'm low on Kelvin Benjamin at this point, but he will rise in my rankings if he has a good, healthy offseason. He finished WR16 as a rookie, but I'm not sure he'll be able to reproduce that production since the Carolina passing game has grown more diverse in his absence. (Remember, Benjamin was 6th in targets in 2014, so he was inefficient from a production standpoint.) Ted Ginn has earned a role and Corey Brown played very well down the stretch.

Willie Snead owned the #39 PPG in standard formats, but since Marques Colston is likely gone, there's a chance that his role expands in 2016. Snead averaged 72 yards on 7.6 targets per game over his final five games.

Zach Ertz finished as the #10 TE in standard scoring, but was #6 after his Week 8 bye, averaging 6.4 catches for 73 yards and 0.25 TD (on 8.8 targets per game) in his final eight games. On the season, he racked up 75 catches for 853 yards and two scores. Given his size and catch radius, his touchdown rate should increase eventually. Playing time was the issue in his first two NFL seasons, but he played 72% of the snaps in 2015 and 79% in his last five games. He’ll be playing in a new offense for a new head coach, Doug Pederson, but Pederson has experience using a stud tight end given his time with Travis Kelce in Kansas City.

I'm really interested to see how the TE situation shakes out in both Indianapolis and San Diego. If the Colts do re-sign Coby Fleener while letting Dwayne Allen walk (both are free agents), Fleener will be one of my favorite sleepers heading into the 2016 season. In the 22 games that Fleener has played over the last three seasons with Allen sidelined, he has averaged 4.1 catches for 54 yards and 0.45 TD. Those averages would have been good enough to finish 7th in standard scoring and 6th in PPR in 2015. When only looking at seven such games in the last two seasons, Fleener has averaged 5.4 catches for 82 yards and 0.86 TD. It doesn't hurt that he hasn't missed a game in the last three years, either.

As for the Chargers, both Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green are free agents. If they both return, it will be a difficult situation to predict. But if the Chargers sign one and not the other, whoever they pick should produce TE1 numbers in Ken Whisenhunt's offense. If Green lands in a good situation as the clear starter, he should provide nice value in the later rounds. In four games that Gates missed in 2015, Green averaged 4.5 catches for 55 yards and 0.75 TD (on 6.8 targets per game). In the 13 career games where Green has seen at least five targets, he has averaged 7.5 fantasy points (standard), which would have translated to #7 TE numbers in 2015.

Zachary Miller was the #5 TE over the final nine weeks of the season, and that includes Week 17, which he missed due to injury. He averaged 3.9 catches for 51 yards and 0.63 TD (on 5.1 targets per game) in that span. In the four games that Martellus Bennett missed, Miller averaged 5.0-55-0.50 on 6.8 targets per game. Those are solid TE1 numbers in both standard and PPR formats. Miller is 31 years old and has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, but he'll be a compelling pick in the later rounds if the Bears part ways with Bennett and re-sign Miller.