FanDuel Week 12 GPP Breakdown
Selecting a pool of players to target in GPPs is only half the battle; you also have to put them all together. With that in mind, I’ve revamped the format of this column. With an eye toward lineup construction, I’ve grouped players to target by lineup slot.
I’ve also created a “profile” for each lineup slot, specifically the salary range and ownership level that will generally give you the best odds. These profiles reflect data I have compiled from each of the 11 lineups of this year’s Sunday Million, FanDuel’s largest GPP. You will see the information reflected in the profiles, but I want to point out some important trends from the winning lineups (which will be updated weekly if anything changes going forward) before we get into the plays.
- Go contrarian at QB: QBs in winning lineups have an average ownership of 4.9%, the lowest of any position group by far.
- Pay up at WR: On average, the most expensive WR in a winning lineup costs $8,700, roughly $1,000 higher than the next three most expensive positions: WR2, QB, and RB1.
- One chalk play at RB, WR is OK: The average highest-owned RB and WR in a winning lineup were owned 23% each. Those represent huge drop-offs from the other RB (6%) and WRs (7%).
- Salary Allocation: The average salary allocation per lineup slot, from highest to lowest is WR1, RB1, QB, WR2, RB2, WR3, TE, K, D.
- Make the chalk work for you; also know where to go contrarian: The average ownership per lineup slot, from highest to lowest is RB1, WR1, TE, WR2, D, RB2, K, WR3, QB.
When a player is listed under a heading with multiple lineup slots, i.e. "WR 1/2", it means that player can be used to fill any of the slots listed.
I also list the (projected) chalk plays -- defined as the highest owned player at a position or any player projected to push 20% owned -- at each slot, drawn from my Tournament Ownership Outlook column. For every position but QB, listed chalk plays are still recommended plays unless otherwise noted. However, you should generally limit yourself to one chalk play apiece at RB and WR and generally not have more than three chalk plays total in a lineup.
My hope is that casual readers will now have more direction as far as how to actually construct a winning GPP lineup, rather than just identify players to target. On the other hand, more advanced readers who prefer to do further independent research can still use the profiles as a lineup construction template even if they do not agree with some of the listed plays.
A note on pairing up players from the same team/game: In general, players from opposing passing games should be paired up whenever possible. Obviously, QBs and WRs should be stacked whenever possible, as should RBs and defenses. QBs and RBs on the same team have a slightly positive correlation and should not be avoided. RB and WR has a slight negative correlation, but it's so small that the pairing should not be avoided either.
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QB Profile: Median salary $7,900, average ownership 4%. QBs in winning lineups have always been under $9,000, most often falling in the $7,000s. Every QB in a winning lineup has been under 10% owned.
Chalk (You generally want little or no exposure to chalk at QB, with exceptions noted below): Carson Palmer (Was owned over 20% on Thursday but no QB in winning lineup has cracked double-digit ownership), Brian Hoyer, Eli Manning
Brian Hoyer $7,100 vs. NO – Despite being a chalk play, Hoyer is still recommended due to a matchup against a Saints defense that allows 27.6 FanDuel points per game to QBs and ranks 32nd in QB aFPA. The Texans’ team total was 25.5 as of this writing.
Josh McCown $6,300 vs. BAL – McCown -- whose price has dropped $700 in the last five weeks -- will face a Ravens defense that defends the run well (3.7 yards per carry allowed, T-4th in NFL) but struggles against the pass (7.6 yards per pass attempt allowed, 23rd). Only the Saints have allowed more aFPA to QBs than the Ravens while McCown has gone over 19 points in four of his last six games, including dropping 35.48 on these very Ravens.
Blake Bortles $7,300 vs. SD – In Week 11, we saw Jameis Winston benefit from his team’s success on the ground to throw five TDs on 29 attempts against the Eagles. The Jaguars are expected to have success in the running game against a Chargers defense ranked 31st in RB aFPA, but 20 of the Jaguars’ 21 offensive TDs have come through the air this season. The Jaguars’ team total was 25.5 as of this writing. Bortles's price has dropped $500 over the last two weeks.