Fanduel Week 9 Values & Top Plays
This week on FanDuel, what stands out to me is the lack of clear-cut QB and WR values. There’s plenty of RB value; in fact, I’d be fine with playing any RB in the top-15 on our FanDuel Value Reports. I’ll highlight a few below, but I think this week lends itself to playing a lot of GPPs and mixing up different QB/receiver stacks.
Update: With Gio Bernard ruled out, Jeremy Hill essentially becomes a must-play in cash games because of heavy anticipated volume at a $5,200 price tag. His price also gives him tremendous upside for GPPs, but if you enter multiple lineups consider fading him in some because his ownership percentage will likely be sky high.
Here are some suggestions for some potentially under-the-radar stacks. Since FanDuel is 0.5 PPR, these stacks favor receivers who have the size and opportunity to catch multiple TDs from their QB, without necessarily putting up huge yardage totals. I’ve also kept them on the cheap side, so if they don’t completely go nuts you can still cash by fitting in more expensive players at other positions.
- Mike Glennon $6,500 & Mike Evans $6,000 - Coaches have said they want to get the ball to Evans more.
- Alex Smith $7,100 & Travis Kelce $5,400 - Jets 30th in QB aFPA and Kelce leads Chiefs in red zone targets.
- Colin Kaepernick $7,800 & Vernon Davis $5,700 - Rams 31st in QB aFPA. Any of Kaep’s receivers work, but Davis has the most TD upside and will likely be barely-owned.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick $6,200 & Andre Johnson $6,900 - Eagles 27th in QB aFPA and 31st in WR aFPA. Hopkins works here too, but Johnson has target edge, 75-53.
- Eli Manning $7,600 & Rueben Randle $6,400 - Randle is 5th in NFL in red zone targets, the Colts defense is vulnerable, and the Giants will have to score.
- Blake Bortles $6,200 & Allen Robinson $6,500 - Very affordable stack that will likely be barely owned.
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Top Plays & Values
QB Peyton Manning @ NE $10,000
The Patriots are second in the NFL in pass defense, yet a middling 11th in opposing passer rating against, and more importantly, 20th in QB aFPA. Four of the last five QBs they’ve faced have multiple passing TDs against them, with the only exception being current benchwarmer Geno Smith. Peyton has failed to throw for three or more TDs only once this season. I’m willing to pay the extra $1,000 for Manning over Tom Brady because while both Denver and New England’s defenses are talented, Manning is the better QB and has much better receiving options even if Revis takes someone away.
Update: With potentially significant heavy winds expected in Patriots-Broncos, I'm a bit concerned that some of Manning's upside may be capped by a run-heavy gameplan or more shorter pass routes. I think Andrew Luck ($10,100) becomes the top play, and am a bit more inclined to dive into the middle tier for Kaepernick (mentioned below) or Carson Palmer ($7,800).
QB Colin Kaepernick vs. STL $7,800
Kaepernick faces off against the Rams, who rank 31st in QB aFPA. They’ve been ravaged through the air this season, allowing a 70 percent completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt. Furthermore, they’ve allowed 8.25 yards per carry to QBs this season. They allowed a similar style of QB--Russell Wilson--to post a historic 300-passing yard, 100-rushing yard day against them just two weeks ago. Kaep has major upside this week.
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