Streaming Tight Ends: Week 6 Targets

Streaming Tight Ends: Week 6 Targets

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last updated Sep 12, 2016

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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I mentioned last week that, based on relatively low usage, tight end is the most unpredictable and volatile position in fantasy football, and this truth reared it’s ugly head for tight end streamers in Week 5. In Chris Raybon’s Tight End Strategy piece, he tells us tight ends will score “above or below their mean fantasy output by 67 percent on average”. Given the inherent volatility of the position, it’s encouraging that Week 5 was our first real slip up of the season.

In the week that Travis Kelce graduated from TEBWW candidate to every week starter, he rewarded owners able to pick him up in the few leagues that he was left in with a touchdown and a top 10 fantasy day. Though the rest of our streaming picks didn’t pan out last week, our TEBWW nominees have averaged 9.2 PPR FP per week (fringe TE1 numbers) and our optimal pick is posting 15.6 PPR FP (TE7 overall).

Going back to Chris’ work on tight ends, he emphasizes certain statistics that correlate directly to fantasy scoring for tight ends, mainly targets and red zone opportunities. While matchups are obviously important, and Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) will continue to be the backbone of our research, Chris points out that, just like tight end is difficult to predict, matchup stats can be similarly volatile.

If we look at the top matchups for Week 6, we’ll see that many of the worst teams against tight ends are either facing tight ends that are every week fantasy starters or play against teams that virtually never utilize the tight end. In this situation, we can look to volume numbers to guide us on our streaming plays.

Here are the top TEBWW options for Week 6:


Owen Daniels at Tampa Bay

After Dennis Pitta was sent to IR, Owen Daniels took over as the starting tight end in Baltimore in Week 4, and since then he is the 6th most targeted tight end in the league and 7th in receiving yards. Tampa Bay is allowing 16 schedule adjusted PPR FP per game to opposing tight ends, the 7th worst total in the league. The Buccaneers have allowed over 250 passing yards in 3 of their 5 contests and have surrendered at least 2 passing touchdowns in 4 games this season. Daniels has averaged a red zone look per game and he will have increased scoring opportunities against a deficient Tampa Bay passing defense.


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Filed Under: w6, 2014

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