DraftKings Week 5 Values & Top Plays

DraftKings Week 5 Values & Top Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Oct 2, 2014

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

Holy crap, DraftKings is going to make someone a millionaire this weekend. That’s happened before, but this time around it’s different because the winner will have turned $27 into seven figures. That’s insanity.

And with so many newbies playing daily fantasy for the first time this season, chances are the winner will be someone like my Uncle Bruce who puts in just a single lineup with Luke Wilson in at tight end or something. The actor, not the NFL player.

The Millionaire Maker has 92,400 possible entries, and by the looks of the early entries, it looks like this thing is going to fill. We’ve never seen a tournament like this in the history of daily fantasy sports—it really is amazing that someone will pay $27 and end up with 37,037 times that much money—but it calls for a unique strategy.

If you’re asking “What can I do that no one else will do?” the answer is nothing. Pretty much every player will be used by someone. But you definitely can create some unique lineups that are at least not very popular, which is going to be crucial to win something like this. If you can identify and hit on a couple low-usage players—maybe guys in just one or two percent of lineups—that’s a massive advantage.

So in this week’s version of this article, I’m going to give you solely GPP plays for the Millionaire Maker. The first will be normal tourney plays—my favorite combinations of value and tournament-worthiness—and the second set of plays will be ultimate contrarian plays, i.e. players who will likely do nothing but at least have some upside and certainly won’t be popular choices on Sunday.

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Week 5 DraftKings $1 Million Plays

High QB: Nick Foles, Philadelphia at St. Louis, $8500

DraftKings’ pricing is kind of weird this week—definitely loose—and it has resulted in worse $/point values for many of the elite players (check out the DraftKings Value Reports here). Pretty much all of the top-tier talent is listed at the bottom of the values.

The reason I like Foles is that he’s kind of struggling right now, which should drive down usage. Vegas opened this game at 48.5 points with the Eagles as 8.5-point favorites, which would have Philly projected at 28.5 points. That’s plenty of scoring, and with the Eagles’ running game struggles, you can probably project Foles to account for a slightly higher percentage of red zone touchdowns than normal.


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Filed Under: w5, 2014

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