Streaming Tight Ends: Week 4 Targets

Streaming Tight Ends: Week 4 Targets

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor) on Sep 23, 2014

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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Bye weeks are already upon us, and with 6 teams not playing in Week 4, filling your fantasy football roster with waiver wire gems is a virtual necessity. For the uninitiated, the TEBWW strategy, also known as tight end streaming, is designed to manufacture TE1 production on your fantasy roster without the use of a highly drafted tight end. By utilizing advanced usage and matchup metrics, primarily schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA), we can pinpoint tight ends that are unowned in most leagues and primed for a big day.

As we get further into the season, aFPA becomes even more reliable, but even with limited data, the TEBWW strategy has been successful through the first few weeks. Week 3 TEBWW recommendations Dwayne Allen (14.3 PPR FP, TE6), Niles Paul (12.8 PPR FP, TE11), and Travis Kelce (12.6 PPR FP, TE12) all provided top tight end production, while Antonio Gates and Jermaine Gresham struggled.

Through 3 weeks, our tight end streaming picks have collectively averaged 9.6 PPR FP per game, which is just shy of TE1 production, while our optimal streaming option has averaged 15.1 PPR FP per game, good enough for the overall TE8 spot. While these are respectable averages for players plucked off of waivers, we can do better, and we will as aFPA becomes more precise with more data.

To ensure that streaming options are readily available, players must be available in at least 40% of ESPN leagues. Before committing to any streaming option, always consult 4for4 rankings first to make sure that a highly ranked tight end isn’t available in your league.

On to Week 4’s top TEBWW options.


Ladarius Green

Making Ladarius Green a top waiver priority this week is as much about rest of season success as it is about playing him in Week 4. After being drafted as a TE1 in many leagues, Green is now owned in less than 12% of ESPN leagues, largely due to Antonio Gates’ early season success. With roughly half as many snaps as Gates, Green was targeted 4 more times and had 3 more receptions in San Diego’s game against Buffalo.

I don’t expect the Chargers to phase Gates out of the offense, but if Green’s role increases in the coming weeks, you want him on your roster. His relatively short targets suggest the Chargers may look to Green to fill the void that was created in the short passing game when Danny Woodhead was lost for the season. Two red zone targets on Sunday should encourage fantasy owners looking for upside, especially this week against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is ranked 31st in PPR aFPA to tight ends, and has given up the most yards and second most touchdowns to the position. Even with Gates competing for tight end looks, Green is worth a start against the Jags, especially if you find yourself in early bye week trouble.


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Filed Under: w4, 2014

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