FanDuel Week 3 Values & Top Plays
Rostering Marques Colston worked out swimmingly last week. Except, the exact opposite. Despite averaging 6 catches and 79 yards over his past ten games, and putting up 110 yards in Week 1, Colston was not targeted for the first time in his 87-game career. As usual, learning from these mistakes are key, so what can we (read: me) learn from this?
Firstly, the Browns reportedly sold out to stop the Saints’ down-field passing game. This would be fine, except the Saints have so many options that, rather than start using Colston on shorter routes, they just targeted other receivers. Even though Colston was receiving a lot of targets, his target count is probably more inherently volatile than the numbers show because the Saints have a ton of options to spread the ball around to. The safest WR options are those that can run high percentage routes as necessary and have the least competition for targets.
The other issue with Colston was that, unbeknownst to me, coach Sean Payton planned to limit Colston’s snaps in this game. Payton felt Colston played too many snaps in Week 1, and wants to limit him to around 50 going forward. This reinforces that opportunity is paramount in daily fantasy and even a slight change in usage can have a huge impact on production.
With the aftermath of Colston’s goose-egg out of the way, let’s talk about value on FanDuel.
Value in Cash Games
On FanDuel, a score of 120 should be the minimum score you aim for in cash games, which works out to two FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary. To make the math easier, DFS vets usually divide a player’s salary by 1,000 and refer to it as “x”; so for cash games, your aim is 2x. Let’s use Jimmy Graham as an example. He’s priced at $8,400.
x = $8,400/1000 = 8.4
So 2x = 2 * 8.4 = 16.8 points needed to “hit value” in cash games.
Your FanDuel cash game lineup should be constructed in a such a manner that every slot is filled with a player who has a good shot at hitting 2x value.
Value in Tournaments
To take down a tournament, you need a huge score, usually 180 or more. Scoring 180 points means you need three FanDuel points for each $1,000 of salary, or 3x. In tournaments, every player on your roster should be able to at least have a shot at 3x value.
Generally, the best way to compile a roster that hits 3x value is to roster at least one, and preferably multiple, minimum or near-minimum priced plays. Because their price is so low, they have a chance to sometimes not only hit 3x, but 4x, 5x, and 6x as well. For example, last week Knile Davis cost $4,500 and scored 25.5 FanDuel points, good for 5.66x value. The best way to find players who will outperform their salary by a large multiplier is to look to cheap players who see a lot of volume, which is usually backup RBs filling in for starters.
Finding cheap plays who can eclipse 3x value leaves you with room to play the week’s top studs, who should have the upside to hit 3x value irregardless of price.
Now let’s get into Week 3’s top plays and values.
QB Drew Brees vs. MIN $9,100
Starting the season with two road games was the perfect storm for Brees; his price has fallen to $9,100 (fourth-highest among QBs), even though he’s the top projected option of the week with Peyton Manning ($9,900) facing the Seahawks. I like Aaron Rodgers ($9,800) to have a big day too, but Brees is a better value at his price.
Brees would need just over 18 FanDuel points to hit value in cash games, a mark he’s reached 88 percent of the time at home over the past two years. Efficiency should be emphasized for fantasy QBs, and Brees’ passer rating is 13 points higher at home (105.4) than on the road (92.6) since he joined the Saints in 2006.
Even though I tend to favor cheaper QBs in tournaments so I can fit in more WRs/TEs with huge upside, Brees makes for a great tournament play at his price. In tournaments, 3 FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary has to be in the realm of possibility in order for a selection to be sound, so Brees would need just over 27 points. Guess what? Brees has reached or eclipsed 27 FanDuel points in eight of his last 10 home games.
It’s hard to truly get a read on the Vikings pass defense, as they’ve only faced a combo of Shaun Hill/Austin Davis, and Tom Brady in a game which he only threw 22 times. Their secondary may be improved, but Brees has shown countless times he can shred any defense this side of Seattle, especially at home. He is a great anchor for your lineup in all game types.