DraftDay Week 3 Values & Top Plays
If you made it through Week 2 without rostering any players who left games with injuries, congratulations. A.J.Green, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno and more gave owners next to nothing last week, which makes it a good time to touch on injuries. Is there any way to “deal” with injuries in DFS?
The one measure you can take to keep injuries from completely ruining your whole week is to hedge. I know there are many DFS players who play only one lineup in cash games, because they argue that if they played more than one it would be “sub-optimal”. I tend to disagree with this assertion because assuming an optimal lineup assumes perfect, infallible projections. Moreover, there are usually more good plays each week than there are lineup slots, so you can comfortably make a few variations of lineups without sacrificing value.
The players I’m least likely to hedge are the cheapest value plays. This is because these plays have a huge upside if they hit, and hurt the least if they give you nothing. These types of values also tend to be limited, so not playing a very cheap value may indeed be sacrificing value.
Being successful in DFS means accounting the best you can for not only the things you can (somewhat) predict, but the things you can’t predict. A.J.Green was a great play last week, but getting a zero at his cost is a major blow to any lineup. If you had him in every cash game lineup, that would be taking an unnecessary risk, which is exactly what you don’t want to do in cash games.
But enough about injuries, let’s get to this week’s top plays and values.
QB Drew Brees vs. MIN $16,400
When Brees is at home he’s almost always a top play. This is especially true with Peyton Manning facing the Seahawks. Efficiency should be a major point of emphasis for fantasy QBs, and Brees’ passer rating is 13 points higher at home (105.4) than on the road (92.6) since he joined the Saints in 2006.
It’s hard to truly get a read on the Vikings pass defense, as they’ve only faced a combo of Shaun Hill/Austin Davis, and Tom Brady in a game which he only threw 22 times. Their secondary may be improved, but Brees has shown countless times he can shred any defense this side of Seattle, especially at home. He is a great anchor for your lineup, and with a lot of value at RB, you should be able to fit him in.