DraftKings Week 17 Values & Top Plays
Week 17 is much different than the previous sixteen game slates, for obvious reasons, but I still think that most of the general player selection rules apply. We’re still looking for value in cash games and upside in tournaments. We’re still concerned about player scarcity and consistency. We still want to pick the players who, all other things equal, will see the heaviest workloads.
The primary difference comes with the latter point, as player workloads have the potential to shift dramatically in the final week of the season. The Patriots, for example, have very little incentive to play their stars, so you can pretty much eliminate Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski right out of the gate.
We could potentially try to predict motivation, too, but I think trying to judge that on the team level and somehow quantify it and accurately apply it on the individual level is really, really difficult. So much so that I think you can and should ignore trying to predict actual player motivation and instead just focus on a team’s motivation to keep their starters in the game.
DraftKings Week 17 Value Plays
High QB: Peyton Manning, Denver vs Oakland, $8600
The Broncos need either a win or a Bengals loss for a first-round bye, but they won’t know Cincy’s fate until later in the night. That means Denver is going to have to go all out to ensure they capture that bye. I have doubts that they’ll continue their running ways in the playoffs, which means there’s a chance that this game turns into a rehearsal for Manning & Co. to get back into sync, especially with Julius Thomas healthy.
The Little Manning is simply a different quarterback with Odell Beckham out wide. If you want to pay up for LeVeon Bell and/or other elite running backs in cash games, I think Eli makes for the safest cheap quarterback play in cash games. Josh McCown is certainly an option, but Manning is a borderline QB1 in this matchup.