DraftDay Week 17 Values & Top Plays
Be sure to pay extra attention to news and early inactives leading up to Sunday's games. Because it's Week 17 and some playoff teams can't alter their seeding much, they may deactivate key players, opening up opportunities to use cheap reserves in DFS. Also, it makes sense to avoid starters on playoff teams that may have nothing to play for.
The Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys may all rest starters. Players like Danny Amendola, Tim Wright, Donte Moncrief, Hakeem Nicks, Joseph Randle and Terrance Williams could come into more value than usual this week.
In lineup decisions, you'll want to lean towards playoff teams who still have something on the line. The Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Bengals, Steelers, Packers, Lions, Seahawks, Cardinals, Panthers, and Falcons all fit the bill.
As far as stacks, Josh McCown-Mike Evans is an affordable stack with a lot of upside. Evans' production can be held back by Josh McCown at times, but McCown has been able to perform significantly better in favorable matchups, and the Saints are 25th in QB aFPA. McCown is the top QB on our DraftDay Value Reports, and Evans is the number-7 WR.
Here's my stab at the Perfect Lineup:
- QB Russell Wilson: Over 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in their previous meeting.
- RB LeVeon Bell: Bengals 32nd in RB aFPA.
- RB Matt Forte: 175 total yards against them in Week 11 and he has incentive to catch 8 passes to set the all-time RB reception record.
- WR Odell Beckham: Could be in for another monster game versus the Eagles, who rank 29th in WR aFPA.
- WR Alshon Jeffery: 17 targets earlier this season against the Vikings.
- WR Mike Evans: Capable of a monster game against Saints’ 25th ranked WR aFPA defense.
- TE Antonio Gates: 12 TDs on the season and could see extra targets with Keenan Allen out.
- K Connor Barth: Raiders 29th in K aFPA.
- DEF Seattle Seahawks: Have been lights out since Bobby Wagner returned, and Rams are 26th in DEF aAFPA.
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QB Eli Manning vs. PHI $12,900
In eight games since a Week 8 bye, Eli hasn’t been held under 247 yards passing. He’s thrown at least one TD in each of those games. His recent success can be tied to the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr., who has legitimately been playing like the best WR in the NFL over the past month. Giants-Eagles has the highest over/under total of the week by a comfortable 3 points. The Eagles are 20th in QB aFPA.
QB Mark Sanchez @ NYG $11,550
The high over/under in Giants-Eagles favors Sanchez as well. The Giants have struggled against QBs to the tune of the 29th ranked defense in QB aFPA.
QB Josh McCown vs. NO $8,750
McCown has not played well of late, but has shown the ability to exploit favorable matchups. In two starts against “green” matchups, McCown threw for at least 288 yards and 2 TDs. The Saints are 25th in QB aFPA and McCown won’t need to do much to pay off his price tag.
RB Arian Foster vs. JAC $14,050
Houston is a 9 point home favorite in a game they have to have and Jacksonville is 26th in RB aFPA. Foster has seen at least 24 touches in all but two games, and averages 1.0 total TDs per game.
RB Matt Forte @ MIN $13,800
The Bears finally recommitted to Forte last week to the tune of 25 touches. The Vikings are a very favorable matchup; they sport a ranking of 25th in RB aFPA. He turned 32 touches into 175 total yards against the Vikings in Week 11.
WR Odell Beckham Jr. vs. PHI $16,550
Beckham has shown dominant separation ability and is the only weapon the Giants have on offense, giving him a high floor and a high ceiling. Philadelphia frequently plays man coverage, which means Beckham Jr. could even see some single coverage. The Eagles rank 29th in WR aFPA.
WR Kelvin Benjamin @ ATL $10,000
Benjamin has seen less than 12 targets only once over his last 5 games. He’s playing in what’s essentially a playoff game against an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th-in WR aFPA.
WR Mike Evans vs. NO $9,950
Evans has a 55 percent market share of Tampa Bay’s 20 receiving TDs this season and hasn’t seen less than 8 targets since Week 8. Josh McCown has thrown for over 50 yards per game more versus bottom-half pass defenses, and New Orleans is 29th against the pass. Top cornerback Keenan Lewis has permitted 5 TDs over his last 7 games.
WR Albert Wilson vs. SD $4,000
Wilson’s role in the offense has been growing, and he’s seen an average of 6.66 targets over his last 3 games, topping 50 yards in each. He played 88 percent of the snaps last week and posted a 5-87 line. At the minimum price, Wilson is a decent value against the Chargers’ 25th-ranked WR aFPA defense.
TE Charles Clay vs. NYJ $7,850
Clay has 6 catches in each of his last two games and at least 5 catches in five of his last six games. He’s also averaged 7 targets per game over his last six games. This volume makes Clay a solid value as the 14th most expensive TE. The Jets lead the NFL in TDs allowed to TEs with 13.
D Baltimore Ravens vs. CLE $4,200
The Ravens get to face off against the third-string QB making his first NFL start. Baltimore is a 10 point home favorite and Vegas projects the Browns to score only 15 points.