FanDuel Week 14 Values & Top Plays

FanDuel Week 14 Values & Top Plays

By Chris Raybon (Senior Daily Fantasy Expert) on Dec 4, 2014

Chris Raybon's picture

Chris Raybon is the Senior Daily Fantasy Editor at 4for4 Fantasy Football.

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisRaybon.

How Do RBs Perform Relative to their Salary on FanDuel?

 
Over the past two weeks, I've looked at how QBs and WRs perform relative to their salaries. Here is the data for RBs:
 
*Note: I removed minimum priced ($4,500) RBs from the sample because there are so many, most of which wouldn't even be considered as playable options, so there would be even more noise than usual in their data.
 
FanDuel RB Salary & Value Report, 2014 Weeks 1-13
Salary Count Avg Val Med Val under 1x 1-1.5x 1.5-2x 2x-3x 3x+ Cash Cash%
9.5k+ 5 1.59 1.15 20% 40% 0% 40% 0% 2 40%
9-9.4k 30 1.92 1.98 17% 10% 23% 37% 13% 15 50%
8.5-8.9k 35 1.9 1.9 17% 23% 11% 34% 14% 17 49%
8-8.4k 30 1.76 1.48 23% 27% 17% 17% 17% 10 33%
7.5-7.9k 43 1.62 1.44 28% 26% 19% 16% 12% 12 28%
7-7.4k 54 1.4 1.17 41% 19% 17% 17% 7% 13 24%
6.5-6.9k 88 1.36 1.2 45% 11% 16% 23% 5% 24 27%
6-6.4k 136 1.48 1.24 41% 16% 16% 17% 10% 36 26%
5.5-5.9k 111 1.25 1.02 50% 16% 17% 12% 5% 19 17%
5-5.4k 172 1.24 0.86 52% 15% 11% 13% 9% 38 22%
4.6-4.9k 189 0.83 0.54 67% 16% 7% 7% 3% 19 10%
 
No surprises here. RBs $8,500 and over tend to be great investments. Similar to WRs, any RB under $7,500 has a huge bust rate (under 1x value). Also similar to WRs, RBs in the low $6,000s tend to return more value than RBs in the low $7,000 range. In general, the low $7,000 range seems to contain the most "land mines" at all positions, because these are the volatile $6,000 plays coming off recent play that generally has exceeded their "true" value, and thus they tend to regress down toward the mean as their salary increases.
 
FanDuel RB Salary & Fantasy Points Report, 2014 Weeks 1-13
Salary Count Avg Score Median Score High Score Low Score 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30+ 15+
9.5k+ 5 15.18 11 27.8 5.4 0% 40% 0% 20% 0% 40% 0% 60%
9-9.4k 30 18.13 18.55 37.3 1.7 7% 10% 17% 23% 23% 10% 10% 67%
8.5-8.9k 35 16.56 16.7 29.2 1.7 6% 14% 29% 23% 9% 20% 0% 51%
8-8.4k 30 14.46 11.8 40.8 2.1 10% 30% 23% 13% 10% 7% 7% 37%
7.5-7.9k 43 12.51 11.1 30.2 1 19% 28% 26% 12% 5% 7% 5% 28%
7-7.4k 54 10.08 8.65 23.9 -0.1 22% 35% 19% 15% 7% 2% 0% 24%
6.5-6.9k 88 9.12 8.05 28.4 -0.9 32% 25% 23% 16% 3% 1% 0% 20%
6-6.4k 136 9.26 7.6 29.5 -0.9 34% 26% 20% 12% 5% 2% 1% 20%
5.5-5.9k 111 7.18 5.6 43 0.1 46% 28% 20% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6%
5-5.4k 172 6.45 4.55 32.2 -0.2 52% 24% 13% 6% 2% 1% 1% 10%
4.6-4.9k 189 3.93 2.6 18.9 -1.5 68% 23% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3%
 
Under $8,500, there's greater than a 50 percent chance a RB doesn't hit double digits. Contrast this to WR, where only 32 percent in the $8,000-$8,400 range and 35 percent in the $7,500-$7,900 range fail to crack double digits. This reinforces why it's generally preferable to pay up for RB over WR in cash games, which is discussed this preseason in my RB and WR DFS strategy guides.
 
Now that we've looked at QBs, RBs, and WRs, we can compare them.
 
Note: RB Data is through Week 13. QB/WR data is through Week 11.
 
% of Games Hitting Cash (2x) Value
  QB RB WR
10k+ 93% N/A N/A
9.5-9.9k 67% 40% N/A
9-9.4k 68% 50% 29%
8.5-8.9k 43% 49% 39%
8-8.4k 58% 33% 42%
7.5-7.9k 56% 28% 41%
7-7.4k 58% 24% 19%
6.5-6.9k 72% 27% 32%
6-6.4k 70% 26% 36%
5.5-5.9k 72% 17% 33%
5-5.4k 71% 22% 18%
4.6-4.9k N/A 10% 11%
 
I've bolded and italicized the "sweet spots" for each position. Note how the highest salaries give the best ROI on QBs, then RBs, then WRs. Also note how WRs in the $5,500-$6,900 range return more value than RBs in that range.  Finally, note that since QBs tend to return a better value multipler at all salary ranges, it tends to be best to pay way up or pay way down. "Punt" (minimum or close to minimum salary) plays at QB, such as Ryan Fitzpatrick at $5,000 last week (who was recommended in this space) can be very valuable because of the roster flexibility they provide.
 
As a final note, remember that this data is not the final word on player selection. For one thing, it is still a small sample (not even one season). Every week there will be a bunch of players that go against the percentages detailed above. However, DFS is a game of percentages. Being aware of the percentages may enable you to make an extra good play or avoid a bust. These small differences can add up to huge profits.
 
Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.

 

Top Plays & Values

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. ATL $10,400

Because projections use some sort of average as a baseline, the distribution of players’ projected point totals tend to be closer to the “average player” than actual weekly results. For example, this week, 22 of 32 (69 percent) of QBs are projected between 15.1 and 19.4 points. Therefore, it’s always notable when one player’s projection is a huge outlier. Rodgers is projected for 25.5 FanDuel points, which is 3.7 more than the second-highest projected QB.  With 32 TD passes and 3 interceptions on the season, he’s the top play of the day at QB and a top-three dollar-per-point value despite a gargantuan salary.

 

QB Colin Kaepernick @ OAK $7,200

I’m not buying Kaepernick solely because of his favorable matchup versus the Raiders, who rank 26th in QB aFPA. I’m buying because his salary is the lowest it has been since Week 14 of 2012, and $1,300 lower than his $8,500 season-high in 2014. DFS isn’t as much about “prediction” as it is about stacking the odds in your favor, and at his modest price tag, Kaepernick is in a great spot to return value.

 

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Filed Under: w14, 2014

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