DraftDay Week 10 Values & Top Plays
This week, there are some interesting opportunities to create some decent QB-WR GPP stacks costing less than some stud players alone.
For example, you can roll out a Zach Mettenberger ($7,500)-Justin Hunter ($6,550) stack for $14,050. While Vegas doesn’t expect much from the Titans (they’re projected to score only 17 points), it makes sense to make this type of high-upside, high-risk move in a tournament, where finishing anywhere outside the top-20 percent is as good as finishing last. A Hunter-Mettenberger stack seems like a risk worth taking according to our value reports, where both players are top-five in our DraftDay Value Reports at their respective positions.
Another cost-effective stack is Josh McCown ($7,700)-Vincent Jackson ($8,700) for $16,450. The Falcons defense is sub-par, ranking 21st in aFPA versus both QBs and WRs. McCown hasn’t had much success in Tampa in a small sample size, but he has shown he can have success throwing deep to big WRs. Deep threat Jackson has historically been the ultimate boom-or-bust GPP WR anyway, so this stack makes a lot of sense as well.
As always, here's my stab at the Perfect Million:
- QB Peyton Manning: He’ll carve up the Raiders to get the sour taste out of his mouth from last week’s loss.
- RB Matt Forte: On pace for more catches than your favorite WR. Packers last in the NFL in rush defense.
- RB DeMarco Murray: The Jaguars aren’t the Cardinals, and he will continue to be leaned on.
- WR Antonio Brown: The Jets pass defense is terrible and Brown is really good at football.
- WR Calvin Johnson: He’s so big and Miami’s corners are so small.
- WR Jordy Nelson: Leads the NFL in red zone targets.
- TE Julius Thomas: Leads the NFL in receiving TDs.
- K: Justin Tucker: I expect the Ravens defense to give the offense a few extra short fields.
- DEF: Arizona Cardinals: Rams are 31st in DEF aFPA and the Cards love to blitz.
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QB Aaron Rodgers vs. CHI $16,400
Rodgers is projected as the highest-scoring QB of the day. With all the value on the site, you can easily fit Rodgers in your lineup if you want. Green Bay-Chicago has this week’s highest over/under with Vegas projecting the Packers to score nearly 30 points, and Rodgers has thrown for at least three TDs in over half of his games in 2014.
QB Matt Ryan @ TB $12,400
Matty Ice is projected to score the fifth-most points among QBs, but is priced as the 14th-most expensive. Going against a hapless Tampa Bay defense that ranks 29th in aFPA, Ryan should be a safe bet to return value coming off a bye. The Bucs have allowed 293 passing yards per game through eight games, and multiple passing TDs to every QB except first-year starters Teddy Bridgewater and Austin Davis.
QB Josh McCown vs. ATL $7,700
Because of the $100,000 salary cap, there are some major price discrepancies between upper and lower tier players. As a result, there are always a couple of slots where players who receive significant usage are basically “free”. Returning as the Bucs starter, McCown is strictly a price play even though the Falcons are ranked 21st in QB aFPA. He’d need roughly 12 points to hit value in cash games, which can give you major flexibility in roster construction.