DraftDay Week 1 Values & Top Plays
Editor's Note: Please welcome Chris Raybon to the fray. Chris is new to 4for4 Fantasy Football this year, but is no stranger to the daily fantasy hustle. If you missed his strategy pieces this summer, be sure to check them out: Quarterback Strategy, Running Back Strategy, Wide Receiver Strategy, Tight End Strategy and DST/Kicker Strategy. Chris will be covering FanDuel and DraftDay Values & Top Plays on a weekly basis while Jonathan Balescovers DraftKings and hawks his books.
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QB Peyton Manning $16,650 vs. IND
Despite costing only $750 more, Manning projects to outscore Drew Brees by over three points. Although Brees should have a fine game, his road struggles combined with Manning’s cost make Manning the premier option at the position. Even without Wes Welker, Manning has enough firepower with the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julius Thomas. Vegas projects the Broncos to score 31 points, and Manning accounted for 78 percent of the Broncos’ touchdowns over the last two seasons.
QB Nick Foles $13,750 @ JAC
If you want to try and arbitrage Manning, Nick Foles is a fine choice, as Vegas has the Eagles projected to score just as many points as the Broncos. We’re looking for efficiency, not volume from our DFS QB, and Foles is capable of delivering just that. He boasted an impressive 27-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 9.12 yards-per-attempt in Kelly’s system last season.
Don’t let the -10 point Vegas line scare you from deploying Foles; the Eagles defense should give Foles great field position to work with against a poor Jaguars offense. While Jacksonville’s defense should be improved, Chip Kelly and the gang have had all offseason to prepare for this game and I expect Foles and the offense to continue to function at a high rate.
QB Derek Carr $7,500 @NYJ (GPP only)
I’d recommend anchoring the QB position with Manning and/or Foles, whose teams are both projected by Vegas to score 31 points. However, there is not much in the way of value for a second QB. Jay Cutler ($13,800) is priced expensively, and Matt Ryan ($13,000) is in play but faces off against a what could be an excellent Saints secondary this year.
This forces us to dig deeper and come up with Carr, who is in play due to his minimum price tag and the fact the Jets are extremely thin at cornerback. If the Jets’ inexperience is exposed, Carr could end up with a couple of touchdown passes and a decent yardage total for minimum (QB) price. He’s a risky play, though, as the Jets are 5.5 point favorites whose dominant run defense could force Oakland into a lot of second and third-and-longs and potential negative game script.