Daily Fantasy: Week 2 FanDuel Optimal Plays

Daily Fantasy: Week 2 FanDuel Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Sep 12, 2013

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

As I recapped in “Staking Bales,” Week 1 was good to me, and it was probably good to you if you used the optimal lineups I posted here at 4for4. Overall, I increased my bankroll by 16.7 percent, and I was especially profitable at FanDuel. There alone, my bankroll jumped 24.6 percent, primarily because I won 35 of my 41 heads-up matches.

If I didn’t know what I’m doing, I’d say that you necessarily need to buy into my picks because I had one really good week. But even a broken clock is right twice a day, so I need to prove myself again in Week 2 and beyond.

Using a combination of my own projections and the FanDuel Value Report, let’s take a look at some of Week 2’s best values.


Value Plays

QB Chad Henne $5000
4for4’s top quarterback value is Chad Henne, and he’s mine as well. The question is whether or not Henne is really a viable daily fantasy option, and I think he is. Your goal is to maximize projected points, not just value, but I think Henne can give you enough production to justify his place in your lineup. He’s been a relevant fantasy quarterback when he’s played in the past, and Jacksonville plays the anemic Raiders.

RB Adrian Peterson $10000
Many daily fantasy sites price their elite players well ahead of the rest of the crowd. FanDuel does not. You can often successfully implement a high-low salary structure at FanDuel because players like Peterson aren’t priced far enough ahead of the second tier. He’ll run you 10k, but that’s not even 10 percent more than No. 2 running back Doug Martin (also a good value). And when you have a player like Henne in your lineup, it allows you to go big elsewhere.

WR Mike Williams $6200
I thought Williams was one of the most undervalued players in season-long leagues because people tend to fade receivers who are No. 2 on their own team. And while Williams’ ceiling might not be the highest, he’s still a tremendous value because of the nature of his game. He should see a ton of targets against the Saints—a game the Bucs will likely be losing late—and he’s always red zone-relevant. Even if Williams gets shut down, he’s still a good bet to score each week.

TE Jimmy Graham $7800
Like I said, FanDuel underprices their studs, and I almost always use a high-low strategy because of it. Graham costs only $700 more than Vernon Davis, which is insanity. He’s basically the No. 1-projected tight end every single week, regardless of his opponent. He’s got an extremely favorable matchup against the Bucs, and you can legitimately own both he and AP.

Side note: I want to mention that I’d be more inclined to play Williams and Graham together in a heads-up league than a tournament. Since they’re both pass-catchers in the same game, I think their ceilings (and floors) are inversely correlated. That means they probably won’t both go nuts—something you don’t want in tournaments—but could make for a nice heads-up pairing.

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Filed Under: w2, 2013

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