Week 14 FanDuel Optimal Plays

Week 14 FanDuel Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Sep 12, 2016

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

I’ve had a lot of success at FanDuel this year because that’s where I play the majority of my heads-up action. If you recall from last week, I’ve increased my bankroll over 25 percent in head-to-head and 50/50 leagues (while subsequently losing some of that in tournaments), and FanDuel offers a great opportunity for heads-up profits.

Last week, I noticed that a few of the site’s top players—I won’t name any names, but one rhymes with Schmondia—were scooping up people’s head-to-head matchups, no matter how many they had. So if you used FanDuel’s new multi-entry feature to put out 50 head-to-heads at $1 each, for example, there’s a decent chance that many of them were taken by one or two players.

I’m not really sure how I feel about a user taking all of my matchups—I don’t necessarily blame someone for doing that since they need to do what they have to do to make money—but one thing I know for sure is that it’s bad for daily fantasy sports. If a new user signs up for a site, deposits $50 and enters it into 50 head-to-head leagues, they’re expecting 50 different matchups. When they run into one user with a single lineup and promptly lose a hefty portion of their bankroll against one player, they probably aren’t coming back.

This isn’t necessarily your concern, but it’s something to monitor if you plan to post head-to-heads without any sort of matchup blocker on. The goal of head-to-head games is to reduce variance, not to put your bankroll in harm’s way.


Week 14 FanDuel Optimal Plays

QB Josh McCown vs. DAL $7200

NOTICE: If you aren’t 100 percent sure by Sunday morning that McCown will be starting for the Bears on Monday night, don’t put him in your lineups. But right now, it’s looking very much like McCown will be the starter, and I assume we’ll have confirmation within a day or two.

The thing that I like most about McCown right now is that he’s been highly efficient. With 7.94 YPA, McCown is running the Chicago offense as well or better than Jay Cutler. I’ve never been a fan of Cutler, so when you see him have unusual success and then a backup comes in to lead the offense just as well, the obvious conclusion is that it’s not the quarterbacks, but rather the scheme, that’s driving the success.

So is McCown a good quarterback? I have no idea, but I know that under Marc Trestman, he’s likely to have a good game against the Cowboys.


RB LeSean McCoy vs. DET $9200

For whatever reason, McCoy seems to be flying under the radar as an elite running back. You have Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch continually mentioned, but not too much Shady.

One of the things I like to consider when selecting players is the pace and overall philosophy of the opposing offense. When you have two teams like Philly and Detroit that either run a fast-paced offense or just throw the heck out of the ball, you’re likely to have a whole lot of plays in a game.

It’s not out of the question that this game could see 150 plays. So when you’re projecting a player with that sort of volume, it’s really an advantage over a player in a game that might see only 100 plays (like Seattle vs. San Francisco).


WR Torrey Smith vs. MIN $6600

I don’t like Torrey Smith this week. I love Torrey Smith this week. He’s on pace for nearly 1,300 yards this year, but no one seems to notice. That’s probably because Smith doesn’t score all that much, but there’s not really great reason to think he can’t. Even if he’s slightly big-play dependent, Smith has a big enough body that he should have more than four touchdowns at this point.

Two things make Smith a great play on FanDuel; he’s cheap, and it’s only 0.5 PPR. Smith isn’t a reception machine, but that doesn’t hurt you on FanDuel nearly as much as most other sites that are full PPR.


TE Jordan Cameron @NE $5400

Ready for the most ridiculous “Did you know?” of all-time?

Did you know…Jordan Cameron is third among tight ends in PPR leagues? He’s behind only Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis in total points. Part of that is because of injuries to other players, but Cameron got off to such a hot start that he’s still among the league leaders.

Was Cameron overachieving or is he special? Probably both, but if I’m going cheap at tight end, I’m putting my money on the freak athlete who could potentially catch 10 passes and score three times. Yeah, the quarterback situation in Cleveland is worrisome, but when hasn’t that been the case? It’s either Cameron or Graham for me this week.


FanDuel Optimal Lineups

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Filed Under: w14, 2013

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