Week 10 FanDuel Optimal Plays

Week 10 FanDuel Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Nov 7, 2013

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

FanDuel is the No. 1 daily fantasy site for head-to-head matchups. I wrote about heads-up play in the preseason:

"If you’re serious about profiting from daily fantasy, heads-up leagues should be the backbone of your league composition. There are two reasons: it minimizes risk, and it minimizes risk. Oh, that’s the same thing? No it isn’t.

Minimizes Risk: The obvious way in which you can minimize risk in heads-up leagues is that you’re competing against just one other person, so 50 percent of the entrants are paid. That’s important because one of the primary factors in determining how much money you can plunk down on any single lineup is the percentage of players who get paid. You can wager 15 or 20 percent of your bankroll on an optimal lineup if you place it into heads-up leagues. You can’t do that in a tournament.

Minimizes Risk, Part Deux: The other way in which entering heads-up leagues minimizes risk is that you get paid in a very linear way, assuming you enter enough leagues. By that, I mean that if you finish in the top 90 percent of all heads-up lineups, you’ll win somewhere around 90 percent of your leagues. If you finish in the bottom 10 percent, you’ll likely lose in all but 10 percent of them.

Note that you “get what you deserve” as you play in more and more heads-up leagues. If you submit a particular lineup into just one league, for example, you could win with a bottom 20 percent score if you get lucky and face a really weak opponent, for example. On the flip side, you could lose with a top 90 percent lineup.

Note that you “get what you deserve” as you play in more and more heads-up leagues. If you submit a particular lineup into just one league, for example, you could win with a bottom 20 percent score if you get lucky and face a really weak opponent, for example. On the flip side, you could lose with a top 90 percent lineup."

Since you don’t need an elite lineup to profit in heads-up leagues but an unusually low-scoring lineup could really hurt you, you want to choose the safest players possible. Here are the safest options on FanDuel in Week 10.

 

Week 10 Values

QB Eli Manning vs. OAK $6400

Forget what I said about Eli in Week 5. And 6. And 7. And 8. He’s a good value right now, and that’s all that matters.

At $6400, Manning costs $400 less than Mike Glennon, $600 less than Ryan Tannehill, and $1200 less than Ben Roethlisberger. Despite all of his struggles, he has 400-yard upside that’s tough for the quarterbacks priced around him to match.

 

RB Eddie Lacy vs. PHI $6800

FanDuel must have something against Lacy. With his workload, he’s close to being a top-tier option, especially this week in Philly. Aaron Rodgers’ departure might not even hurt Lacy since running backs thrive primarily on touches rather than efficiency.

I recently calculated the correlation between carries and fantasy points versus YPC and fantasy points, and it turns out that carries are twice as important to running backs. Start Lacy without worry.

 

WR Antonio Brown vs. BUF $6900

I’ve talked about why I like Brown in heads-up leagues; he sees a lot of targets, many of which are screens and other short, safe passes, so he has a really high floor each game.

You’d like to see more scores from Brown, but how about this for consistency: he has at least five catches and 50 yards in every single game this year. He’s also seen at least 11 targets in four contests. Brown should be a staple of pretty much all of your heads-up lineups because he’s so safe.

 

TE Jimmy Graham vs. DAL $8700

You might want to fade Graham in heads-up just because of his price, but it will be tough to say no in tournaments. There’s a good chance that Graham just destroys Dallas this week, giving him the potential to be a must-start for all winning tournament lineups.

Right now, Graham is on pace for 98 catches, 1,492 yards, and 20 touchdowns. That’s an okay season for a tight end, right?

 

Optimal FanDuel Lineups

4for4 Premium Content

There's more, but it's available only for 4for4 subscribers.

Subscribe Now - Get Premium 4for4 Content

If you are a current subscriber, please login here

Filed Under: w10, 2013

We are your friend's secret weapon.

  • Get 4 FREE downloads
  • Receive breaking news alerts & analysis.
  • Battle-Tested by 40,000+ fantasy football diehards since 1999.