Utilizing the Draft Planner: Drafting from the #10-#12 spots

Utilizing the Draft Planner: Drafting from the #10-#12 spots

By John Paulsen (Senior Editor), last updated Aug 24, 2012

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, finished as runner-up in 2011 and 4th in both 2012 and 2015 for a total of five Top 5 seasons in the last six years. Cumulatively, John was the most accurate expert from 2010-15 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

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This is the final part of a four-part series that is intended to help fantasy owners develop a draft plan based on their position in the 1st round. Last week, I outlined a draft plan for those owners picking #1-#3 and another for the #4-#6 spots. Earlier this week, I wrote about the #7-#9 spots. Today, I'm going to tackle the #10-#12 spots.

Using the ADP Draft Planner and our Value Based Rankings (VBR), I'll go round by round through the 8th round and mention a few players that fantasy owners should be targeting at each pick.

Keep in mind that these picks are for PPR scoring formats (with 4 pt per pass TD), but I will outline standard scoring strategy as well. I'm going to assume a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE (along with a kicker and defense). If your league allows you to start three RBs, you'll want to focus a little more heavily on the RB position as the draft wears on. (Same thing goes if your league requires three starting wide receivers.) Conversely, if your league only requires one starting RB, you can focus more on the other positions.

Note: Since there is far more draft data for PPR in the Draft Planner, I'm going to use it for both formats. ADP doesn't change all that much between formats, unless you're talking about players like Wes Welker or Darren Sproles. All percentages are for last two weeks as of time of publishing. The ADP Draft Planner is constantly being updated as real drafts complete on myfantasyleague.com.



In PPR formats, we are fairly certain to be drafting Darren Sproles in the 2nd round. So I'm going to write this article given three options in the 1st round: RB/Sproles, QB/Sproles or TE/Sproles. For RB/Sproles we are assuming that you're drafting the best available running back other than Sproles in the 1st round. That could be Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray or Jamaal Charles.

For QB/Sproles, were assuming Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady fall to you. For TE/Sproles, we're assuming that you draft Jimmy Graham or perhaps Rob Gronkowski in the 1st round.

Standard Scoring: In standard formats, Sproles isn't much of a consideration in the 2nd round, but Gronkowski is and should be readily available (81%), so we'll assume that you're taking him in the 2nd round. We will consider two possibilities: RB/TE and QB/TE. There is a 70% chance that Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Tom Brady or Drew Brees is available at 1.11.



In PPR, we recommend Sproles in the 2nd round for all teams. He is available at 2.02 96% of the time. (If he's not available, you can draft the best available RB or perhaps Jimmy Graham.)

Standard Scoring: This is where you grab Gronkowski.




RB/Sproles: Well, you don't really need a running back, so you should look for best available wide receiver. We really like Percy Harvin, but he's available at 4.02 79% of the time, so you may be able to "save" him for the 4th round. Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson or Victor Cruz should be available 84% of the time.

TE/Sproles: RB is the way to go here. Steven Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Trent Richardson or Ryan Mathews should be available 82% of the time.

QB/Sproles: See TE/Sproles above. You need an RB.


RB/Gronk: Unless Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton slip, it's wise to take a running back here. Check our standard rankings, and grab the best one. You can add Marshawn Lynch to the group above.

QB/Gronk: You definitely need an RB. Grab the best available.

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Filed Under: Preseason, 2012

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