Note: All percentages are for last two weeks as of time of publishing. The ADP Draft Planner is constantly being updated as real drafts complete on myfantasyleague.com.
This is the second of a four-part series that is intended to help fantasy owners develop a draft plan based on their position in the first round. To see part one (for those owners picking from the #1-#3 spots), click here.
In this part, we'll deal with the #10-#12 spots. Using the ADP Draft Planner
and Value Based Rankings
(VBR), I'll go round-by-round (through the 8th round) and mention a few players at each pick that fantasy owners should be targeting.
Keep in mind that these picks are for standard scoring formats (with 4 pt per pass TD), but when appropriate I will mention players that should be considered in PPR formats as well. I'm going to assume a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (along with a kicker and defense). If your league allows you to start three RBs, you'll want to focus a little more on the RB position as the draft wears on. Conversely, if your league only requires one starting RB, you can focus more on the other positions.
Off we go...
Drafting this late in the 1st, owners have to prepare for a few different scenarios. In standard formats, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick enter the conversation, and if you're comfortable going QB this early, they are reasonable picks in this range. We recommend Rashard Mendenhall if he's available, and he has about a 62% chance of being there at 2.12.
If Mendy is not there, the next best RB option is Darren McFadden
, who has the talent to crack the top 5 if he stays healthy. There is risk there, so owners may elect to go with a WR (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson
or Roddy White
) or a QB instead. Let's look at three different first round scenarios:
Team #1: Mendenhall
Team #2: C. Johnson
Team #3: Vick
PPR: VBR says to look WR/WR here (assuming the top 6 RBs are gone), so we'll plan on going WR/RB with our first two picks since I just don't feel comfortable sending fantasy owners into the 3/4 turn without a RB on the roster (due to the relative lack of depth in the early rounds at RB). Whether you go RB or WR first is up to you. Do you see much of a difference amongst the #2-#5 WRs (Calvin, Roddy, Nicks, Fitzy)? If not, grab your favorite RB in the 1st and look to grab one of those four in the 2nd.
Team #4 (PPR): DMC
Mendenhall - You could go RB, WR or QB here. Let's assume you go RB. There's a 91% chance
that one of McFadden
, Frank Gore
or LeSean McCoy
make it to 2.03.
Calvin - Let's try going WR here to see what's available at the 3/4 turn at RB. Roddy White
, Hakeem Nicks
or Larry Fitzgerald
is available 97% of the time
Team #4 (PPR):
After McFadden in the 1st, you're looking WR in the 2nd. There's an 81% chance
that Calvin, Roddy, Nicks or Fitzgerald will be there at 2.03.
RB/RB - With two RBs on the roster, it's time to look for some WRs. But other than Vincent Jackson
(who is not likely to be available at 3.12), Antonio Gates
represents the most value. He's available 69% of the time
Team #3: QB/RB - With Vick and Gore here, you can go RB or WR, or even TE. Assuming V-Jax and Bradshaw are gone, the next highest value is Gates.
Team #3: QB/RB/TE - You've ignored the WR position, but you still need your second RB. What do do? It may be tough to pass up some of the WR talent here, but Blount, Bradshaw, Best, Greene or Felix would look good on this roster.
Team #4 (PPR):
RB/WR/WR - We were planning on Felix here, but Bradshaw and Best are possibilities as well. One is available 90% of the time
WR/WR/RB/RB - In a three WR league, the aforementioned group of wideouts hold more value than TEs like Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley
or Dallas Clark
, though you could grab Witten here (if available) and plan on a WR in the 6th. We'll assume a WR here from the Johnson/Manningham/Holmes/Lloyd/Maclin group.
Team #3: QB/RB/TE/RB - You have to look WR here, and while none of these guys are great WR1s, they're good enough when you have started Vick/Gore/Gates/Felix.
Team #4 (PPR):
RB/WR/WR/RB - Witten, Finley and Clark represent good value in the 5th, but it's doubtful that they'll be available (22%
). So look to take one of those WRs.
I like Freeman about as much as those other guys, so one strategy would be to go WR here (Holmes, Manningham, Lloyd, Maclin or Percy Harvin
- or even Chad Ochococinco
) and hope that Freeman slips to 7.10-7.12.
The #10-#12 QBs often slip a bit further than expected because so many owners already have QBs and are looking to fill other positions. But let's assume a QB in the 6th.
WR/WR/RB/RB/WR - The Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger and Freeman group look good here (85%
), though if Witten/Clark/Finley slip (31%
), give them serious consideration.
QB/RB/TE/RB/WR - You should be looking WR
here since you start three.
Team #4 (PPR):
RB/WR/WR/RB/WR - This is a good spot for Witten/Clark/Finley, if available, but they'll likely be gone, so you should look QB or RB3. Which way you go depends on your QB philosophy. Josh Freeman
may be gone at 7.10 -- are you okay with Stafford/Eli/Cutler? If not, let's say you grab one of the aforementioned QBs here and plan to take a RB3 in the 7th.
7.10-7.12 / 8.01-8.03
Team #2: WR/WR/RB/RB/WR/QB
Team #3: QB/RB/TE/RB/WR/WR
Like Team #1, you'll want to target a WR3 and a RB3 on this turn.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR/WR/RB/WR/QB
Like Team #2, you should target a TE and a RB3 on this turn, though you could also build some more depth at WR if you think Tolbert/Hightower might slip to the 9/10 turn (not likely, but possible). One of the aforementioned five TEs are available 99% of the time
Let's take a look at a reasonable representation of each team:
Team #1: Mendenhall, Gore, Gates, D. Bryant, Manningham, Big Ben, S. Moss, Tolbert
Team #2: Calvin, Fitzgerald, Best, Felix, Manningham, Freeman, Daniels, Tolbert
Team #3: Vick, Gore, Gates, Felix, S. Johnson, Manningham, Hightower, M. Thomas
Team #4 (PPR): DMC, Nicks, M. Williams, Felix, Manningham, Big Ben, Tolbert, Gronkowski
Notice that the only team where we took a QB early (Team #2) turned out pretty well, though the margin for error in the early 4th round at RB is less than it is at WR. If you miss out on Blount/Felix/Best/Bradshaw, you may be stuck with RB3 types posing as your RB2.
Manningham is one of our favorite value WR picks in the 5th/6th rounds, but his stock is rising so be prepared to strike in the 5th. He's still a very good value there. Meanwhile, we believe that Tolbert and Hightower represent solid value in the 7th/8th as low-cost RB3s.