Note: All percentages are for last two weeks as of time of publishing. The ADP Draft Planner is constantly being updated as real drafts complete on myfantasyleague.com.
Welcome to the first of a four-part series that is intended to help fantasy owners develop a draft plan based on their position in the first round.
We'll start with those owners picking #1-#3 in 12-team drafts. Using the ADP Draft Planner, I'll go round-by-round (through the 8th round) and mention a few players at each pick that fantasy owners should be targeting.
Keep in mind that these picks are for standard scoring formats (with 4 pt per pass TD), but when appropriate I will mention players that should be considered in PPR formats as well. I'm going to assume a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (along with a kicker and defense). If your league allows you to start three RBs, you'll want to focus a little more on the RB position as the draft wears on. Conversely, if your league only requires one starting RB, you can focus more on the other positions.
Let's jump right in...
In standard formats, there isn't a big difference between 1.02 and 1.05. If you have the #1 overall pick, we're recommending Arian Foster
. After that, you have your choice of Adrian Peterson
, Chris Johnson
, Jamaal Charles
, Ray Rice
and possibly Rashard Mendenhall
. AP seems to be the next most dependable pick in the top 6, but things can change pretty quickly in this tier. At this point, 4for4 is recommending Foster, Peterson, C. Johnson, Mendenhall, Charles and Rice, in that order. Pick your favorite.
Substitute LeSean McCoy
in for Mendenhall in the above paragraph. His value shoots up in PPR formats.
PPR: Michael Turner
's value takes a hit in PPR leagues since he doesn't catch many passes, so don't start thinking about him until the 3rd. There is a 68% chance
in PPR formats that one of Forte, Jackson, Gore, DMC or Hillis slips to 2.12. Jahvid Best
should be available in the early 3rd (86%), so you may want to grab the best available WR and plan on Best at 3.01-3.03.
If you are thinking QB here, Tom Brady
makes the most sense, but there is better value at WR now and QB later.
The chances of one of those four WRs drop to 61% in PPR formats. If you went RB in the 2nd, grab the best available WR. If you went WR in the 2nd, then this is a great spot for Jahvid Best
(or Ahmad Bradshaw
) as he should have a big year with Mikel Leshoure
Don't deviate too much here. One of these WRs will be available. If you want to build up some RB depth, Felix Jones
is a nice pick here. He's available at 4.12 68% of the time
Time to round out that WR corps. One of the trio of Steve Johnson
, Santonio Holmes
or Mario Manningham
should be there at 5.03 (98% of the time
, anyway). Don't be fooled by Manningham's ADP. He's probably not going to be there at the end of the 6th unless you are in a league with a bunch of dolts.
If not, look for one of the aforementioned WRs.
At this point, you've nabbed two RBs and three WRs, so it's time to start thinking QB, TE and RB3. At QB, four names jump out: Ben Roethlisberger
, Matt Ryan
, Josh Freeman
and Matt Schaub
. One of the four has been available 66% of the time
at 6.12, though I'd expect Ryan's ADP is on the rise after word leaked that the offense will be much more aggressive this season.
If they're all gone, look for one of the aforementioned QBs (77%
If you went QB in the 6th, grab a RB3 (like Tolbert, Benson, Lynch, Jackson or Addai -- 98%
), or Hightower, whose stock is on the rise.
If you went WR in the 6th, it's probably time to look for a QB (77%
), unless you are okay with Stafford or Eli in the 8th or Cutler in the 9th.
Whew! So there's the first eight rounds for both standard and PPR formats. Here's a realistic sample team for each.
Both of these teams are built around the strategy of waiting on a QB. The quarterback position is a bit more important in standard formats but as I've shown, it's not too difficult to build a strong roster utilizing this approach.