Fantasy Football: 2011 Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)

QBBC

By John Paulsen, Contributing Editor
 
One of my favorite draft strategies is to wait on a QB until the middle rounds and then draft two QBs whose schedules complement each other. With all the depth at the position, it's a good idea in general to wait for QB value in the 7th-9th rounds, but grabbing a quality backup in the 9th-11th also gives you security at the position that other fantasy owners may not have. Those that draft a QB early tend to wait longer on their backup because they look at their roster during the draft and feel secure with Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in the QB1 slot, and instead try to shore up inevitable weakness at other positions. But what happens if that stud goes down?
 
On the flip side, those that wait on a QB are able to load up on quality RBs, WRs and even a stud TE. They can build a great core roster and then add a solid QBBC that is collectively likely to yield quality production.
 
There are a few QBBC combos that I'd like to discuss. Looking at 4for4's rankings, I started with QB9 (Josh Freeman), figuring that anyone with a QB1-QB8 is probably going to start that player every week. I included all the players through QB23 (Colt McCoy) because that is about where the job security ends. I'm also including Kyle Orton in the study just in case he is traded to Miami.
 
In terms of strength of schedule, I put each pass defense into one of five categories: elite, good, mediocre, bad, terrible. I've found that, outside of the elite or very bad, pass defenses are very difficult to predict year to year. Here's a look: 
 
Elite: GB, PHI, NYJ, PIT (-2 points)
Good: BAL, NO, SD (-1 point)
Bad: CIN, DEN, OAK, SF (+1 point)
Terrible: SEA, TEN, JAX (+2 points)
 
I'm predicting that CIN and OAK will take two big steps back after losing Johnathan Joseph and Nnamdi Asomugha, respectively. The 49ers also really struggled down the stretch in 2010 and lost their best corner, Nate Clements (who won't be good enough to fill Joseph's shoes in Cincy). I'm also betting that John Fox can take the Broncos from dreadful against the pass so somewhat less dreadful. His Carolina teams were always bad against the run and decent against the pass. That, or teams had no reason to throw the ball -- but either way, those teams weren't good matchups for fantasy QBs.
 
Moving on...when looking at QBBC, we're trying to find a combo that has two players that we like while maximizing good matchups and minimizing difficult matchups. Here's what I found:

TOP COMBOS

 
These four are tied at first with 14 points: Kolb/McCoy, Ryan/Schaub, Schaub/McCoy, Freeman/McCoy
 
Notice that Colt McCoy checked in with three of the top four QBBCs. But he's not exactly high on our rankings, so unless you are a big believer, you may want to use him as a Plan B on draft day.
 
Let's look at Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub:
QBW1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
M.Ryan
QB-10
12
@CHI
3
PHI
14
@TB
32
@SEA
2
GB
21
CAR
10
@DET
BYE 23
@IND
11
NO
28
TEN
18
MIN
25
@HOU
21
@CAR
31
JAX
11
@NO
14
TB
M.Schaub
QB-12
23
IND
24
@MIA
11
@NO
1
PIT
22
OAK
6
@BAL
28
@TEN
31
JAX
15
CLE
14
@TB
BYE 31
@JAX
8
ATL
30
@CIN
21
CAR
23
@IND
28
TEN

Schedule difficulty based on opponent's defensive ranking. Top defense = 1, bottom defense = 32.

My pass SOS differs a little from the site's but you get the drift -- these two compliment each other pretty well. Ryan has SEA the same week Schaub has PIT; Schaub has OAK while Ryan has GB; Schaub has JAX while Ryan is on bye. They have a great playoff schedule with CIN and JAX. But given their ADP (Ryan 75, Schaub 66), this is a very expensive combo. Per the ADP Draft Planner, both players are going in the late 6th in 12-team drafts.
 
In other words, Ryan/Schaub is probably a 10-team QBBC to target in the 7th/8th. Schaub is expensive in general, so we'll avoid him for the rest of this piece. 
 
Let's take a look at a couple of key players that are good for 12-team QBBC...
 

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Filed Under: Preseason, 2011