The Shawn Griffin
 Column

Aligning Fantasy Value with 
Real NFL Value - its time to flex!
4for4.com Exclusive
Updated by Josh Moore

Don't get me wrong I love fantasy football. That said, please allow me to continue.

Stop the Madness
Often times a Top 25 Fantasy Football list hardly resembles the starting lineup for the annual Pro Bowl or the All-Pro list. The demographics often times break down pretty unevenly with one quarterback, fifteen running backs, eight wide receivers and one tight end on the list.

Seriously?!?!?

Does anyone real NFL GM believe a young running back (e.g. Matt Forte or Chris Johnson) is more valuable than Peyton Manning?

It makes me believe more and more than the 'godfathers' of fantasy football either drank themselves into a miserable stupor with Duff beer or were frustrated band geeks that wished mortal discomfort on the quarterback who happened to be the BMOC (big man on campus).

To me, an ideal fantasy football league rewards players and fantasy league owners with the 'true value' of a skilled position player. 

For example, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has an average draft position (ADP) of 22 this season, which equates to being the second pick of the third round in a 10-owner league.

Seriously?!?!?

Does any sane NFL fan believe that arguably the best quarterback in football today and future Hall of Famer with three Super Bowl rings should go behind the likes of Steve Slaton and Clinton Portis - two running backs who couldn't get into Canton without a ticket.

How can a League Commissioner fix this discrepancy?

Simple.

In a standard 1-2-3-1-1-1 (one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one DEF, one K), adding two, three or four 'flex' starters will add value to the truly valuable players in the league.

As Commissioner of a league for 16 years, we utilize the standard starters listed above but also have a 16-owner league. To deviate from the standard and the inflated value placed upon a running back, our starting lineup includes four 'flex' starters from any position.

The key is to test the scoring system to be utilized and do a 'smell test' on the results.

For our Fantasy League Draft last year, we had the following Draft results:

   ~ In the first round, seven quarterbacks, eight running backs and one wide receiver were drafted.

  
~ In the second round, three quarterbacks, eight running backs, four wide receivers, and one tight end were drafted.

  
~ In the third round, seven quarterbacks, two running backs, and seven wide receivers were drafted.

For a demographic breakdown, that translates to the following for the first 48 selections:

4-FLEX ADP

RB

37.5%

54.2%

QB

35.4%

4.2%

WR

25.0%

37.5%

TE

2.1%

2.1%


Adding the 4-flex positions allows the better managers to win out more often because the league requires more decisions. Further, since QBs typically score the most, they become much more valuable with 4-flex and this is especially true in larger leagues.

League commissioners... Do you want a league that goes heavy RB in the first two rounds and WR in rounds three through five or do you want a league that more closes mirrors true NFL value?

Despite the Fantasy World not aligning Fantasy Value with real NFL Value, 4for4.com again proves itself as the premier fantasy football consultant on the planet. An elite sports journalism staff breaks down every skill position player in the league. Greg Alan displays his unmatched abilities as a mathematical guru throughout the preseason and regular season. 4for4.com also gives us fantasy owners the best in class 'fantasy tools' like pcDrafter's 'Mock Draft' and 4for4.com's Draft Simulator, which is essential for forecasting. And by the way, having killer tools really makes a huge difference when you go 4-flex.


2009 Heavy-Flex Sample Results from
the 4for4.com Full Impact Draft Simulator
(inputs = start: 3-qb, 2.7-rb, 2.3-wr, 1-te, 1-k, 1-def; Computer Strategy Mode)

 QBRBWRTEKDEFpicks
Team1102000R1: D. BREES    R2: C. JOHNSON    R3: G. JENNINGS   
Team2111000R1: T. BRADY    R2: D. BOWE    R3: M. FORTE   
Team3111000R1: K. WARNER    R2: M. COLSTON    R3: B. WESTBROOK   
Team4210000R1: P. MANNING    R2: M. SCHAUB    R3: D. WILLIAMS   
Team5102000R1: L. FITZGERALD    R2: R. WAYNE    R3: M. CASSEL   
RB-Stud030000R1: A. PETERSON    R2: L. TOMLINSON    R3: S. JACKSON   
Team7111000R1: P. RIVERS    R2: S. SMITH    R3: F. GORE   
Random111000R1: D. MCNABB    R2: A. JOHNSON    R3: M. BARBER   
Team9210000R1: A. RODGERS    R2: B. ROETHLISBERGER    R3: S. SLATON   
Team10111000R1: R. MOSS    R2: J. CUTLER    R3: R. BROWN   
Team11120000R1: M. TURNER    R2: M. RYAN    R3: C. PORTIS   
You210000R1: T. ROMO    R2: M. DREW    R3: E. MANNING   


While we might be able to find a few exceptions, the above draft list certainly does a better job of mirroring true NFL value. Breese is your number one, Brady is a top-2 pick and franchise QBs Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner round out the top 4.

Think about Flex-4 next time you want to shake up the rules in your league.

 

Sign up now to receive hot fantasy news, analysis, and insights delivered FREE to your inbox.

Email Address: