Offensive System

4for4 Rankings with Reasons^® ...

It's the System

During the 2000 season, (QB) Kurt Warner was forced to the sidelines because of injury. Without missing a beat, backup (QB) Trent Green stepped in and continued to put up amazing numbers for the Rams.

Also during the 2000 season, 3^rd string rookie (RB) Mike Anderson, a 6^th round draft pick, racked up almost 1,500 rushing yards and had the 5^th best yards/carry in the NFL.

Since we're looking back, lets mention ex-CFL (QB) Jeff Garcia. All this guy did in 2000 was pass for over 4,200 yards. That’s more yards than Steve Young or Joe Montana ever had in a single NFL season.

Green, Anderson and Garcia all deserve a big round of applause! However, their accomplishments are also a testament to the Rams, Broncos and 49ers respective offensive systems. Herein, we're going to overview the predictive power of ‘Offensive System’ and how 4for4 leverages this knowledge to enhance Fantasy Draft player rankings.

Only in Fantasyland

Imagine you’re a new NFL head coach. Further, assume you’ve been groomed for 20 years to implement a pure West Coast offense. For you, the West Coast offensive isn’t a philosophy; it’s more like a religion.

For you, there is no debate - the West Coast system is the ultimate scheme to force mismatches and win football games. You love the fact that the West Coast system spreads the field, uses a wide variety of formations and leverages the passing game to achieve ball control. For you, it’s the ultimate low-risk, high-production pro-style attack!

Now, imagine you enter training camp and your roster includes (RB) Jim Brown (at age 25) and (RB) Barry Sanders (at age 26). However, you find out your starting QB is a washed-up guy named Bubby Brister (age 40 something). In addition, you learn your squad is very weak at wide receiver. To make matters worse, your team salary cap is at the NFL maximum since your GM was hell-bent on spending big bucks to get Yancey Thigpen out of retirement. Finally, the GM demands you build the passing game around Yancey, since he spent huge bucks to sign the now ‘healthy’ Thigpen.

Time to look for a new job? Perhaps! But if you burn the West Coast playbook and go to a ball-control running game, you might still have a chance (Jim Brown was one hell of a runner).

Back to NFL Reality

In truth, the above scenario would never happen because a team’s offensive philosophy wouldn’t allow it to happen. NFL teams use their offensive philosophy as a blueprint and most staffing decisions on offense reflect the blueprint. For Fantasy Football owners, understanding this is key. 

Offensive System Benefits

Once you examine the NFL under the ‘Offensive System’ microscope, an entirely new world opens up. For the Fantasy Football owner, using ‘Offensive System’ will enhance your ability to predict: 

- Player Movements 
- Coaching Movements 
- Game day ball distribution patterns 
- Player Stats for the upcoming season

Offensive System Microscope

To illustrate, lets put the 2001 Detroit Lions under the ‘Offensive System’ microscope.

After the 2000 season, the Lions gave several front office members the pink slip.

As the dust settled, Matt Millen was appointed the Lions new President and Chief Executive. Millen, a former NFL player, had extensive exposure to the West Coast system during his playing days. Soon, Millen made his first big decision. Despite some success, the Lions axed Head Coach Gary Moeller. Moeller was a disciple of Bobby Ross, a man that preached a ridiculously conservative offensive game plan. Next, in the search for a new coach, Millen ignores several outstanding and deserving candidates (all non-West Coast system men). Instead, the Lions name Marty Mornhinweg as their new Head Coach. Some in the media were shocked by Millen’s move. He passed over Herman Edwards and Marvin Lewis for Marty Mornhinweg, a man with relatively little NFL coaching experience.

It’s time to pull out the ‘Offensive System’ microscope. Clearly, Millen wanted to hire a West Coast expert. As a kid at Oak Grove High School, Marty Mornhinweg was already learning his craft. Marty’s coach in high school was Mike Holmgren (West Coast man). Later, Marty briefly played in the NFL for the 49ers and learned under Bill Walsh (West Coast man). Next, Marty replaced Jon Gruden (West Coast man) as an assistant coach at Southeast Missouri State and continued practices Gruden had put into place. By 1996, Mornhinweg was Brett Favre's quarterback coach with the Packers (West Coast system). In 1997, Mornhinweg joined the 49ers (West Coast system) and later was promoted to offensive coordinator in charge of what else, but the West Coast offense. In short, Marty Mornhinweg is an expert in the West Coast system. Understanding Millen’s objective, you can’t fault his selection. As fallout, the Lions axed both their Offensive Line and QB coach. Why? You got it - these guys didn’t fit the Offensive System!

The take here is clear. In the NFL, hiring, firing and even targeted selection for deep backups often falls along ‘Offensive System’ party lines. Several 2001 off-season player acquisitions clearly influenced by ‘Offensive System’ philosophy include:

Trent Green joining Kansas City

Matt Hasselbeck joining Seattle

Rickey Dudley signing with Cleveland

Jake Reed signing with Minnesota

Randle Cunningham signing with Baltimore

Andrew Glover signing with Oakland

Jerry Rice signing with Oakland

Coach Andy Reid Said It All

In the 2001 off-season, free agent journeyman (TE) Jeff Thomason resigned with the Philadelphia Eagles. After which, Eagles Head Coach Andy Reid said: "Jeff and I have had a long player-coach relationship and it will be nice for that to continue." Translated under the ‘Offensive System’ microscope, Reid was saying: Thomason has modest talented at this point in his NFL career, but he understands my system, so you better believe I’m going to keep the guy. 

Learning how to fully exploit ‘Offensive System’ for Fantasy Football is a multifaceted issue and a complete review of this subject is not in the scope of this offering. However, in regard to anticipating player movement, the pattern is clear.

If you’re dead serious about winning Fantasy Football, you’ll need to learn ‘Offensive System.’ For draft day purposes, the good news is ‘Offensive System’ factors have successfully been incorporated into the 4for4 Fantasy Draft Rankings.

Offensive Scheme Stats

You need talent to get the job done in the NFL. If you were running a Ball Control system, you’d certainly be happy to have Jim Brown or Earl Campbell as your go-to runner. Having one of these Hall of Fame talents carrying the pigskin clearly would increase your odds of success. Likewise, having a competent and experienced QB like Steve Young, Joe Montana or Brett Favre lead your West Coast system would help make it fly. No doubt about it, the better the players, the better the output. 

However, each NFL pro-style scheme has certain tendencies. Analysis shows that over many NFL games, these tendency result in rather predictable box-score stats. Friends, that’s something you can put to your advantage. The table below provides expected values over a 16-game NFL season.

To illustrate, the table shows the average Spread Formation attack will pickup 67% of their TDs via the air.

Careful inspection reveals some rather significant differences. For example, the average West Coast Offensive will generate 26% more TDs per season than the average Ball Control system (39 to 31).

By leveraging this type of analysis, objective data is feed into the 4for4 draft day ranking process. By itself, ‘Offensive System’ grading data is valuable for projecting player stats. When combined with other 4for4 predictive components, ‘Offensive System’ grading data becomes an integral component to enhancing forecasting accuracy.