The Art of the Auction

Background

Auction style drafting is gaining momentum. If trends continue, auctioning may soon become the draft method of choice in a number of private leagues. It’s easy to see why! Auctions promote fairness, eliminate long waits between picks, reward strategic thinking, provide owners with countless options, increase head-on competition and closely mirror several NFL constraints.

Perspective

The techniques described herein work. They’ve helped a number of Fantasy Football owners excel. If properly executed, these techniques can offer exceptional upside potential. However, there are a number of ways to dominate an auction style draft. This article provides you with just one of several such methods. Come draft day, if circumstances prohibit you from implementing these techniques, be flexible, have a backup plan ready and don’t force fit things into your original game plan. In short, don’t let any predefined strategy force you into making bad decisions. As you examine this material and prepare for your auction, keep in mind a few things about Fantasy Football; it’s evolving and it’s a relative game. Taken to an extreme, if everyone always used the same general consensus cheat sheet and employed the same draft day strategy, then no one would have a sustainable draft day advantage.

Strategy

Unlike the more traditional serpentine drafting method, the open bidding (auction) style draft provides everyone with an equal shot at all NFL players. In that regard, the auction style draft is the fairest of all methods. Auction style proponents applaud the fact that everyone has an equal chance at obtaining stud players like Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James. That being said, everyone wants these marquee consensus top picks. However, therein lies a dilemma: Overall team depth or a few good studs?

They Lose, You Win

Only a small percentage of Fantasy Football owners are willing to leverage aggressive high-yield techniques due to fear of failure and/or lack of knowledge - - - and that’s good news! This gives you a window of opportunity, an opportunity to dominate your draft! What we’re going to share here is aggressive and it promotes calculated risk taking! We make no apologies; it’s a high risk, high reward ride. With that warning, it’s time to get aboard the train or get out of the way!

How to Spend Against Your Salary Cap

The smoke clears and the auction starts. Each owner is filled with adrenaline, anticipation and excitement. Everyone dreams of walking away with an incredible starting lineup, a deep bench and several “can’t miss” sleepers. Nonetheless, due to the open market dynamics, it just isn’t going to happen that way. As such, at the auction, you’re going to face reality real quick – should you go all out and garnish a few marquee players or is it better to save salary cap money and build team depth. Certainly, this question can spark heated debate. 

If you want to dominate your draft and fundamentally distance yourself from the pack, you’re not going to do that with a large number of second tier, albeit occasionally serviceable, journeymen players. Plain and simple, like 1+1 = 2, you need dominant players to dominate your league! Let’s say-say-say it again, you need dominant players to dominate your league!

It’s time to put a stake in the ground and establish your first goal. Assuming you’re in a 10-team league and you start 8 players each week, you need to obtain 3 top-rate marquee studs on draft day. If you can do this, you’re well on your way. In order to obtain 3 top-rate studs, you’re going to have to sell out your bench depth. As a  rule of thumb, be prepared to spend 75-85% of your salary cap in order to obtain 3 top-rate players.

At this point, with your triplets in place and your salary cap money low, you may have to sit on the auction sidelines for a while. Here, you’ll need to be patient and monitor competitive spending levels. Your goal now is to save money and ideally have the most cap room available as you approach the final 1/3^rd of the draft. Despite your possible early spending spree, this is realistic. In some cases, you can help make it happen. If your cap is low relative to your foes and good Fantasy talent is available, it’s time to force the miserly owners to spend. When it’s your turn to submit a player for bidding, always select the best player available. This will force the ‘coupon clipping’ owners (who enter the auction thinking they’ll steal top talent late) to spend money. In fact, these owners will be forced to spend money now (usually on B+ grade players) or face the grim reality of holding significant cap room, primarily for scrap heap talent.

Now is also the time to leverage another draft day phenomenon. More often than not, during the auction, player prices disproportionately drop as the draft moves along. The free market plays out and a B-grade type wide receiver that was going 6% of the salary cap earlier in the draft can now be had for 2-4%. When this happens, you have a value proposition – an opportunity to get a serviceable starter “on the cheap.” This is your wake up call. When you see this happening, it’s time to actively bid and try to fill out your starting lineup. The goal is to obtain as many value picks, as described above, as possible.

At this stage, if things are going well and you have been successful, your team should consist of 3 fantasy football studs and 3-5 solid value picks. In terms of money, you should have 4-10% of your bankroll still available.

Now, it’s time to look for some sleepers and protect your marquee player investments. One of the most effective late round tactics is to find sleepers and protect your high cost spends by targeting select NFL backup players. Often these backup players can be had for only 1-3% of your total salary cap. You target these backup players by leveraging two factors:

1) In Fantasy Football, injuries often clear the path for sleepers.

2) When executed properly, certain pro-style attack schemes often lead to big fantasy production. Marquee players, especially running backs and wide receivers, often benefit greatly from ‘fantasy friendly’ systems. In other words, often the system enables players to become marquee Fantasy Football studs.

In 2000, Mike Anderson, a 6^th round NFL draft pick, emerged as a result of injury. In addition, with Dorsey Levens nursing a bum knee, Ahman Green gained over 100 yards in 8 of the Packers last 9 games. Both these men started the season as backups and both were barely noticeable on the Fantasy Football radar screen. However, as a result of teammate injury, both stepped into “fantasy friendly” offensive systems. By season’s end, Anderson and Green were highly valued Fantasy Football weapons.

Again, the message here is to guard against injury, protect your 3-stud investment and use pro attack-style as a guidepost in finding your sleepers. Often this can be achieved by drafting a few targeted players and you’ll only have to spend 2-4% of your salary cap to make it happen!

Gut Check Time

If you’re not comfortable with risk and would be happy with a middle of the pack finish, the above game plan isn’t for you. Certainly, no auction strategy is perfect and this plan leverages risk in order to go for the gold. A point to ponder: assuming you’re not risking a significant amount of capital, why not aggressively step up and air it out? Do you really want to play it safe and land in 5^th or 6^th place?

Bidding Increment

Never jump your bid more than needed. Rather, when bidding, always top the most recent bid with the minimum increment allowed by your league rules. We’ve seen more than one eager Fantasy Football owner overpay due to their impatience. Don’t let this happen to you.

How to use General Consensus Player Values

Before entering the auction, be sure to visit your sources for published player values. In fact, try to collect as many quality published values as possible. Pooling this data and computing general consensus dollar values will give you a good feeling for what other owners may be willing to pay. 

However, on draft day, we suggest you examine general consensus values only as a guide to help you determine what your competition may be thinking.

By definition, consensus cheat sheets, do not offer the serious Fantasy Football owner a sustainable and true competitive advantage. If you want more on this topic, please consult General Consensus.

Our Parting Shots

Auction time can be fun and rewarding. However, auctions can be disheartening and very frustrating. It comes down to being prepared, staying focused, remaining flexible, being patient and outwitting your competition. In regard to preparation, information can be a great aid. However, having a library of books, complex data lists, notebook PCs, spreadsheets and various cross-reference charts can spell trouble. At auction, don’t get caught up in using tools and other aids if they diminish your ability to be flexible, attentive and outwit the competition. Carefully watching your money, thinking and staying focused is vital during the auction. 

Finally, we hope you enjoy the auction. It’s your chance to separate the pretenders from the contenders!